Austrian Bundesliga7°12 km/h

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    WSG TirolWSG TirolCounter-attacks & crosses
    1–1
    Grazer AKGrazer AKLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · WSG Tirol (44%)

    WSG Tirol vs Grazer AK · Austrian Bundesliga

    1 · WSG Tirol 44%X 26%30% Grazer AK · 2

    Prediction summary

    Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for WSG Tirol vs Grazer AK (Austrian Bundesliga, Saturday, 24 October 2026): WSG Tirol win 44%, draw 26%, Grazer AK win 30%. Expected goals (xG): WSG Tirol 1.59, Grazer AK 1.16. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: WSG Tirol or draw 70%, Grazer AK or draw 56%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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    Analysis: WSG Tirol – Grazer AK

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    TEXT: With WSG Tirol rated at 44% to win by the model, there's a clear lean towards the hosts in this Austrian Bundesliga clash against Grazer AK. The numbers reveal a fascinating battle between Tirol's counter-attacking style and the visitors' low defensive line coupled with direct play. Historically, Grazer AK has had the upper hand in this fixture, but past records from just eight meetings don't weigh as heavily as current form and expected goals, which tilt in favor of the home team.

    WSG Tirol's current trajectory is underlined by a slight edge in both points (11 to Grazer’s 9) and expected points (12.9 to 9.1), showing that they’ve been outperforming the visitors in a few key areas. With an expected goals figure of 1.59 compared to Grazer AK's 1.16, the hosts seem poised to create more scoring opportunities, and their xGA of 1.7 compares favorably to Grazer AK's 2.0, giving Tirol the edge at both ends of the pitch.

    The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 12% suggests a balanced match, yet the model's inclination towards a 1-0 or 2-1 win for Tirol aligns with their slightly superior attacking metrics. Both teams are expected to find the net, reflected in the 55% probability for both teams to score. Despite this, the over 2.5 goals at 52% does not strongly suggest a high-scoring affair, indicating a cautious approach could dominate proceedings.

    Given the expected goals and current form, a narrow home victory seems plausible, with 1-0 or 2-1 being realistic outcomes. The real value lies in backing Tirol at odds of 2.45 with LeoVegas, offering a 9% edge according to the model. At these odds, the potential payoff for a home win stands out, making it a tempting proposition for those seeking value in their bet.

    WSG TirolWSG Tirol
    Form WDLLW
    League ranking xG #6xGA #7xT #10xP/match #6Points #6
    Key players
    • David GugganigCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
    • Marco BorasCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
    • Moritz OswaldLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
    Grazer AKGrazer AK
    Form DWDDL
    League ranking xG #11xGA #11xT #7xP/match #10Points #8
    Key players
    • Yannick OberleitnerCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.13
    • Leon KlassenLBxG 0.09 · xT 0.17
    • Peter MichorlCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
    Final score
    1 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: WSG Tirol 44% · Draw 26% · Grazer AK 30%

    Match prediction: WSG Tirol – Grazer AK

    Predicted score matrix

    Grazer AK →
    WSG Tirol →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.7%
    0–17.0%
    0–24.3%
    0–31.7%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–09.8%
    1–112.1%
    1–26.8%
    1–32.7%
    1–4+1.0%
    2
    2–08.1%
    2–19.4%
    2–25.5%
    2–32.1%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–04.3%
    3–15.0%
    3–22.9%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–02.4%
    4+–12.8%
    4+–21.7%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,59–1,16
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,548%
    @2.00
    Over 2,552%
    @1.88

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance WSG Tirol or draw (1X)73%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.78

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance WSG Tirol or draw (1X)73%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Nemanja Čelić to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Nemanja Čelić to score22%
    • Marc Striednig to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    Bookmaker1 · WSG TirolX2 · Grazer AK
    LeoVegas2.183.353.10
    Pinnacle2.223.563.26

    Odds updated 24 Oct, 11:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a WSG Tirol win since 22 October — the odds have shortened from 2.56 to 2.22 (−13%).

    1-13 %
    45 %35 %

    2.56 → 2.22

    X+5 %
    33 %23 %

    3.38 → 3.56

    2+19 %
    37 %27 %

    2.73 → 3.26

    Over 2,50 %
    56 %46 %

    1.88 → 1.88

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    8 matches
    WSG Tirol 1Draw 4Grazer AK 3
    Goals: 6–13 (⌀ 2,4)

    Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • Grazer AK 1902 dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 8 meetings.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    WSG Tirol
    Grazer AK
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    WSG Tirol (12–14)
    Grazer AK (7–22)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    WSG Tirol
    Marco Boras: 309 passningar, xT 0.53BorasDrew Murray: 270 passningar, xT 0.36MurrayMoritz Oswald: 268 passningar, xT 0.42OswaldDavid Gugganig: 245 passningar, xT 0.49GugganigMarc Striednig: 218 passningar, xT -0.09StriednigSalko Hamzic: 165 passningar, xT 0.3HamzicMatthaus Taferner: 150 passningar, xT 0.24TafernerThomas Goiginger: 99 passningar, xT 0.5GoigingerMurat Satin: 73 passningar, xT 0.01SatinMichael Oluwakorede Olakigbe: 69 passningar, xT 0.9OlakigbeDavid Kubatta: 58 passningar, xT 0.04Kubatta
    Grazer AK
    Beres Owusu: 134 passningar, xT 0.88OwusuPeter Michorl: 133 passningar, xT 0.68MichorlYannick Oberleitner: 130 passningar, xT 0.76OberleitnerCican Stanković: 115 passningar, xT 0.62StankovićLeon Klassen: 94 passningar, xT 0.57KlassenAnderson dos Santos Gomes: 73 passningar, xT 0.74GomesChristian Lichtenberger: 66 passningar, xT 0.12LichtenbergerChristopher Cvetko: 61 passningar, xT 0.17CvetkoAlexander Hofleitner: 59 passningar, xT 0.14HofleitnerJacob Italiano: 52 passningar, xT 0.06ItalianoMichael Sollbauer: 44 passningar, xT 0.04Sollbauer
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    WSG Tirol
    Marco Boras: 309 passningar, xT 0.53BorasDrew Murray: 270 passningar, xT 0.36MurrayMoritz Oswald: 268 passningar, xT 0.42OswaldDavid Gugganig: 245 passningar, xT 0.49GugganigMarc Striednig: 218 passningar, xT -0.09StriednigSalko Hamzic: 165 passningar, xT 0.3HamzicMatthaus Taferner: 150 passningar, xT 0.24TafernerThomas Goiginger: 99 passningar, xT 0.5GoigingerMurat Satin: 73 passningar, xT 0.01SatinMichael Oluwakorede Olakigbe: 69 passningar, xT 0.9OlakigbeDavid Kubatta: 58 passningar, xT 0.04Kubatta
    Grazer AK
    Beres Owusu: 134 passningar, xT 0.88OwusuPeter Michorl: 133 passningar, xT 0.68MichorlYannick Oberleitner: 130 passningar, xT 0.76OberleitnerCican Stanković: 115 passningar, xT 0.62StankovićLeon Klassen: 94 passningar, xT 0.57KlassenAnderson dos Santos Gomes: 73 passningar, xT 0.74GomesChristian Lichtenberger: 66 passningar, xT 0.12LichtenbergerChristopher Cvetko: 61 passningar, xT 0.17CvetkoAlexander Hofleitner: 59 passningar, xT 0.14HofleitnerJacob Italiano: 52 passningar, xT 0.06ItalianoMichael Sollbauer: 44 passningar, xT 0.04Sollbauer

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceWSG TirolGrazer AK
    Points119
    xPoints12.99.1
    xG per match1.50.92
    xGA per match1.72
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.30.18
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.280.65
    Playing styleWSG TirolGrazer AK
    Build-up efficiency0.270.28
    Field tilt0.480.39
    xT per match0.780.97
    xTA per match1.21.1
    Won balls, offensive half2231
    Pressing intensity0.240.23
    Pressing efficiency0.30.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.31
    Entries into the box per match1112
    Entries into the box against1511
    Pass completion %0.760.69
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.65
    Passes per match368275
    Passes against per match370349
    Switches of play per match20.422.6
    Long balls per match2834
    Set piecesWSG TirolGrazer AK
    xG from free kicks0.040.06
    Corners per match5.53.6
    Corners against per match6.45.9
    xG per corner0.030.05
    xGA per corner against0.010.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.430.52
    First touch, defensive corners %0.710.59
    OtherWSG TirolGrazer AK
    Throw-in control0.730.67
    The goalkeepersSalko Hamzic (WSG Tirol)Cican Stanković (Grazer AK)
    Saves3533
    Save %73%60%
    xG prevented53%29%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    WSG Tirol
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Grazer AK
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins WSG Tirol vs Grazer AK according to our model?

    The model gives WSG Tirol a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: WSG Tirol 44%, draw 26%, Grazer AK 30%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in WSG Tirol vs Grazer AK?

    The model expects 1.59 goals (xG) for WSG Tirol and 1.16 for Grazer AK, 2.76 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    WSG Tirol or draw (1X) 70%, Grazer AK or draw (X2) 56% and no draw (12) 74%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.