01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Rapid Wien to win77%
- Over 1.5 goals87%
Austrian Bundesliga11°0,3 mm18 km/h
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Rapid WienBalanced & physical5–1
Austria LustenauLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Rapid Wien (77%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 7.63 (+14 %)
Rapid Wien vs Austria Lustenau · Austrian Bundesliga
1 · Rapid Wien 77%X 15%8% Austria Lustenau · 2
77%
15%
Prediction summary
Final score 5–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Rapid Wien vs Austria Lustenau (Austrian Bundesliga, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Rapid Wien win 77%, draw 15%, Austria Lustenau win 8%. Expected goals (xG): Rapid Wien 2.66, Austria Lustenau 0.87. Most likely score: 2-0 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Rapid Wien or draw 92%, Austria Lustenau or draw 23%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Rapid Wien – Austria Lustenau
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The TEXT contains two issues: an unsupported claim about head-to-head history, and a conflation of the match-specific expected goals (2.66) with the season-long xG per match (2.2).
Corrected text:
Rapid Wien take on Austria Lustenau, with the overall form and statistical dominance drawing the eye. The home side is basking in the glow of four consecutive victories, having found the net in 11 straight league matches. Their consistent scoring is underpinned by a season xG of 2.2 per game, and in this match the model projects an expected goals tally of 2.66, suggesting that goal opportunities should come thick and fast.
Contrast this with Lustenau, who are struggling defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 expected goals per match. Their direct style has brought limited success, with a mere eight points this season, failing to mask the gaping holes at the back. Such frailty is concerning against a side that converts chances as efficiently as Rapid. Even historical data backs the hosts: they win 62% of home games, a telling stat that underscores their fortress-like status at home.
The betting markets are heavily tilted in Rapid's favor, as evidenced by their 77% probability of victory. However, there's an intriguing angle in the total goals market. Despite a 68% model lean towards over 2.5 goals, the under 2.5 line offers value, priced at 3.45 with Betsafe and Nordicbet — this presents a 9% edge. For those cautious about a goal-heavy game, under 3.5 at 1.98 with Betsafe offers a safer yet profitable 5% edge.
While the scoreline could reflect a 2-0 or 2-1 victory for Rapid, the potential for a lower-goals outcome creates an enticing betting opportunity. The under 2.5 goals market, with its significant value, emerges as the sharpest angle here. Expect Rapid to dominate, but consider the unexpected in your betting strategy.
Rapid WienForm LWWWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #2xP/match #2Points #1
Key players
- Matthias SeidlCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
- Serge Philippe Raux YaoCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
- Ercan KaraFxG 0.84 · xT -0.03
Austria LustenauForm LLWLL
League ranking xG #8xGA #9xT #11xP/match #8Points #9
Key players
- Albin GashiLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.08
- Antonio VerinacFxG 0.24 · xT 0.10
- Danilo Teodoro SoaresLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.19
Final score
5 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Rapid Wien 77% · Draw 15% · Austria Lustenau 8%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Austria LustenauBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 29,73fair 35,64-17 %
MissMatchresultat - Rapid WienBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 2,77fair 3,67-25 %
HitMatch prediction: Rapid Wien – Austria Lustenau
Predicted score matrix
Austria Lustenau →
Rapid Wien →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.1%
0–12.4%
0–21.1%
0–30.3%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–07.6%
1–17.0%
1–23.0%
1–30.9%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–010.4%
2–19.0%
2–23.9%
2–31.1%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–09.2%
3–18.0%
3–23.5%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–011.5%
4+–110.1%
4+–24.4%
4+–31.3%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-010%
- 2.3-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.3-18%
- 5.1-08%
Expected goals
2,66–0,87
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,50
110%
218%
321%
419%
5+28%
Under 2,532%
@3.55EV+12%
Over 2,568%
@1.40
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Rapid Wien to win77%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Claudy M'Buyi Kabamba to score37%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals68%
- Claudy M'Buyi Kabamba to score37%
- Dion Kacuri to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw15% probability@7.63PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
- Under 2.532% probability@3.55BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
- Under 2.532% probability@3.55NordicbetEV+12%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Rapid Wien | X | 2 · Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.26 | 5.50 | 8.50 |
| Betsafe | 1.19 | 6.60 | EV+ 6% 12.50 |
| Nordicbet | 1.19 | 6.60 | EV+ 6% 12.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.20 | EV+ 14% 7.63 | 11.20 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Rapid Wien win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 1.25 to 1.20 (−4%).
1-4 %
79 %74 %
1.25 → 1.20
X+26 %
16 %11 %
6.05 → 7.63
2+28 %
12 %7 %
8.74 → 11.20
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- SK Rapid Vienna come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- SK Rapid Vienna have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
- SK Rapid Vienna win 62% of their home matches all-time (39 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Rapid Wien
Austria Lustenau
Rapid Wien (26–8)
Austria Lustenau (11–19)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Rapid Wien
Austria Lustenau
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Rapid Wien
Austria Lustenau
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Rapid Wien | Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 24 | 8 |
| xPoints | 16.8 | 10.6 |
| xG per match | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 0.97 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.65 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | Rapid Wien | Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| Field tilt | 0.63 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 0.78 |
| xTA per match | 0.83 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.84 | 0.69 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.78 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 521 | 248 |
| Passes against per match | 361 | 376 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.6 | 20.8 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Rapid Wien | Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 5.1 | 5 |
| Corners against per match | 3.3 | 7.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.51 |
| Other | Rapid Wien | Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Niklas Hedl (Rapid Wien) | Domenik Schierl (Austria Lustenau) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 27 | 35 |
| Save % | 77% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 53% | 41% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Rapid Wien vs Austria Lustenau according to our model?
The model gives Rapid Wien a 77% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rapid Wien 77%, draw 15%, Austria Lustenau 8%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Rapid Wien vs Austria Lustenau?
The model expects 2.66 goals (xG) for Rapid Wien and 0.87 for Austria Lustenau, 3.53 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Rapid Wien or draw (1X) 92%, Austria Lustenau or draw (X2) 23% and no draw (12) 85%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.