01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Hartberg to win45%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Austrian Bundesliga8°3,8 mm9 km/h
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HartbergCounter-attacks & crosses1–0
WolfsbergLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Hartberg (45%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.90 (+14 %)
Hartberg vs Wolfsberg · Austrian Bundesliga
1 · Hartberg 45%X 29%25% Wolfsberg · 2
45%
29%
25%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Hartberg vs Wolfsberg (Austrian Bundesliga, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Hartberg win 45%, draw 29%, Wolfsberg win 25%. Expected goals (xG): Hartberg 1.71, Wolfsberg 1.23. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Hartberg or draw 75%, Wolfsberg or draw 55%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Hartberg – Wolfsberg
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Hartberg's defensive unit will be key in this matchup, given Wolfsberg's current predicament. The visitors are in a slump, enduring five consecutive losses, which casts doubt on their ability to breach Hartberg's defense. The hosts, meanwhile, have shown a knack for exploiting such vulnerabilities, and this is reflected in the model's lean towards Hartberg with a 45% win probability.
The head-to-head record is modest, consisting of just four encounters since 2022. Hartberg leads with two wins, a draw, and one loss, but this thin sample should not overshadow current form and expected goals. Hartberg's expected goals tally of 1.71, compared to Wolfsberg's 1.23, suggests a sharper edge in attack, with the numbers backing a potential 2-1 scoreline in favor of the hosts.
However, the anticipated rainy conditions could play a role in dampening goal-scoring opportunities. While the model still suggests a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals, the weather might suppress both teams' attacking flow and reduce the likelihood of a high-scoring affair. This might explain why the most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 11%.
Intriguingly, the draw emerges as a value proposition. The odds of 3.5 with LeoVegas and 3.45 with Betsafe and Nordicbet all present a slight edge, given the model's 29% draw probability. While Hartberg appears the more reliable bet on form, those with an eye for value might consider the draw as a shrewd alternative, banking on the possibility of a tightly contested matchup that sees neither side fully break through.
HartbergForm WDDWL
League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #9xP/match #9Points #7
Key players
- Manuel PfeiferLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.10
- Marco HoffmannFxG 0.51 · xT 0.01
- Tobias KainzCAMxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
WolfsbergForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #9xGA #12xT #12xP/match #11Points #12
Key players
- Nicolas WimmerCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
- Giacomo VrioniFxG 0.43 · xT 0.02
- Cheikh Mamadou DiabatéCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
Final score
1 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Hartberg 45% · Draw 29% · Wolfsberg 25%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - HartbergBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,58fair 6,61-16 %
MissMatchresultat - Wolfsberger ACBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,65fair 12,71-24 %
MissMatch prediction: Hartberg – Wolfsberg
Predicted score matrix
Wolfsberg →
Hartberg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.6%
0–16.2%
0–24.0%
0–31.6%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–08.7%
1–111.4%
1–26.8%
1–32.8%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.7%
2–19.5%
2–25.9%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–04.4%
3–15.4%
3–23.3%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–02.8%
4+–13.4%
4+–22.1%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,71–1,23
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+18%
Under 2,544%
@2.20
Over 2,556%
@1.62
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Hartberg to win45%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Marco Philip Hoffmann to score35%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Marco Philip Hoffmann to score35%
- Thorsten Schriebl to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw29% probability@3.90PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
- X · Draw29% probability@3.65LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
- X · Draw29% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Hartberg | X | 2 · Wolfsberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.98 | EV+ 1% 3.45 | 3.45 |
| LeoVegas | 1.98 | EV+ 7% 3.65 | 3.35 |
| Nordicbet | 1.98 | EV+ 1% 3.45 | 3.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.89 | EV+ 14% 3.90 | 3.94 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Hartberg win since 22 October — the odds have shortened from 2.14 to 1.89 (−12%).
1-12 %
52 %42 %
2.14 → 1.89
X+10 %
31 %21 %
3.56 → 3.90
2+21 %
32 %22 %
3.26 → 3.94
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesHartberg 2Draw 1Wolfsberg 1
Goals: 7–8 (⌀ 3,8)
Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- Wolfsberger AC have lost 5 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Hartberg
Wolfsberg
Hartberg (15–19)
Wolfsberg (7–18)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Hartberg
Wolfsberg
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Hartberg
Wolfsberg
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Hartberg | Wolfsberg |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 5 |
| xPoints | 10.2 | 8.7 |
| xG per match | 0.97 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | Hartberg | Wolfsberg |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| xT per match | 0.81 | 0.77 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 18 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 310 | 288 |
| Passes against per match | 432 | 395 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.5 | 25.7 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Hartberg | Wolfsberg |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 3.8 | 4.7 |
| Corners against per match | 8.5 | 6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.46 |
| Other | Hartberg | Wolfsberg |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | Ármin Pécsi (Hartberg) | Lukas Gütlbauer (Wolfsberg) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 33 | 22 |
| Save % | 64% | 60% |
| xG prevented | 50% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hartberg vs Wolfsberg according to our model?
The model gives Hartberg a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hartberg 45%, draw 29%, Wolfsberg 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Hartberg vs Wolfsberg?
The model expects 1.71 goals (xG) for Hartberg and 1.23 for Wolfsberg, 2.94 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Hartberg or draw (1X) 75%, Wolfsberg or draw (X2) 55% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.