01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Sturm Graz to win54%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Austrian Bundesliga6°0,1 mm4 km/h
Läs på svenska
Sturm GrazPossession & high press2–2
RiedPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Sturm Graz (54%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.48 (+16 %)
Sturm Graz vs Ried · Austrian Bundesliga
1 · Sturm Graz 54%X 26%21% Ried · 2
54%
26%
21%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sturm Graz vs Ried (Austrian Bundesliga, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Sturm Graz win 54%, draw 26%, Ried win 21%. Expected goals (xG): Sturm Graz 1.97, Ried 1.04. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Sturm Graz or draw 79%, Ried or draw 46%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Sturm Graz – Ried
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Sturm Graz's 54% win probability against Ried is backed by a solid head-to-head record since 2022, with three wins and a draw in their last four encounters. Yet, the visitors are in excellent form, riding a three-game winning streak and having found the net in nine consecutive league matches. This clash of styles—Sturm's high pressing and possession against Ried's control and recent scoring consistency—sets up an intriguing contest.
Sturm's home advantage is substantial, winning 62% of their all-time matches in Graz. However, the expected goals figures hint at a closer contest than those historical stats suggest. While Sturm Graz's xG of 1.8 slightly trails Ried's 1.9, the visitors' ability to score in recent games levels the playing field. Ried's xGA of 1.6 compared to Sturm's 1.3 further suggests that the hosts might control the game defensively, making it tough for Ried to continue their scoring streak.
The model's most likely scorelines—1-1, 2-1, and 2-0—all reflect the slim margins that could define this match. Both teams are expected to score, with a 56% probability, but the 58% likelihood of over 2.5 goals does not fully align with the expected goals, suggesting a tight match where defenses may play a crucial role.
Despite the model's slight lean towards a higher-scoring affair, there is value in the under 2.5 goals market. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds of 2.48, which represents a 4% edge against the model's 42% probability. For slightly safer ground, the under 3.5 at odds of 1.58 with Betsafe presents a smaller but still notable 2% edge, considering the tactical setups and form lines.
Ultimately, the consistent metrics lead us towards a likely 2-1 victory for Sturm Graz, but the value lies in anticipating a more restrained scoreline.
Sturm GrazForm LWLWW
League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #4xP/match #5Points #4
Key players
- Jon Gorenc StankovicCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.15
- Emran SogloLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.27
- Arjan MalicCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
RiedForm LDWWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #6xP/match #4Points #5
Key players
- Philipp PomerLWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.24
- Moegamat Yusuf MaartCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
- Yussef NasraweCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.15
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Sturm Graz 54% · Draw 26% · Ried 21%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - SK Sturm GrazBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,82fair 5,39-29 %
MissMatchresultat - SV RiedBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,50fair 19,43-46 %
MissMatch prediction: Sturm Graz – Ried
Predicted score matrix
Ried →
Sturm Graz →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.2%
0–14.8%
0–22.7%
0–30.9%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–09.4%
1–110.4%
1–25.2%
1–31.8%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.6%
2–19.9%
2–25.2%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–06.3%
3–16.5%
3–23.4%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–04.9%
4+–15.1%
4+–22.6%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
1,97–1,04
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,542%
@2.72EV+14%
Over 2,558%
@1.44
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Sturm Graz to win54%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Jon Gorenc Stankovič to score39%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Jon Gorenc Stankovič to score39%
- Samuel Johansen Chukwudi to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw26% probability@4.48PinnacleEV+16%reference odds
- Under 2.542% probability@2.72BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
- Under 2.542% probability@2.72NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sturm Graz | X | 2 · Ried |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| Betsafe | 1.62 | EV+ 5% 4.05 | 4.40 |
| LeoVegas | 1.64 | EV+ 9% 4.20 | 4.33 |
| Nordicbet | 1.62 | EV+ 5% 4.05 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | EV+ 16% 4.48 | 4.57 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 12:35
Odds movement
1-1 %
59 %54 %
1.69 → 1.67
X+6 %
25 %20 %
4.22 → 4.48
2+6 %
24 %19 %
4.33 → 4.57
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesSturm Graz 3Draw 1Ried 0
Goals: 7–3 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- SV Ried come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- SV Ried have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
- SK Sturm Graz win 62% of their home matches all-time (68 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sturm Graz
Ried
Sturm Graz (16–10)
Ried (16–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sturm Graz
Ried
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sturm Graz
Ried
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sturm Graz | Ried |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 14 |
| xPoints | 14.3 | 14.6 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.31 |
| Playing style | Sturm Graz | Ried |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.57 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.89 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 31 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 266 | 313 |
| Passes against per match | 272 | 392 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.9 | 19.6 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Sturm Graz | Ried |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 7.5 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.4 | 6 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| Other | Sturm Graz | Ried |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Daniil Khudyakov (Sturm Graz) | Andreas Leitner (Ried) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 30 |
| Save % | 68% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 62% | 50% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sturm Graz vs Ried according to our model?
The model gives Sturm Graz a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sturm Graz 54%, draw 26%, Ried 21%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Sturm Graz vs Ried?
The model expects 1.97 goals (xG) for Sturm Graz and 1.04 for Ried, 3.01 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Sturm Graz or draw (1X) 79%, Ried or draw (X2) 46% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.