01 · 2 legs
Safe
- LASK to win71%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Austrian Bundesliga12°6,9 mm14 km/h
Läs på svenska
Austria LustenauLow block & direct0–4
LASKPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · LASK (71%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.05 (+5 %)
Austria Lustenau vs LASK · Austrian Bundesliga
1 · Austria Lustenau 11%X 18%71% LASK · 2
18%
71%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–4. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Austria Lustenau vs LASK (Austrian Bundesliga, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Austria Lustenau win 11%, draw 18%, LASK win 71%. Expected goals (xG): Austria Lustenau 0.86, LASK 2.52. Most likely score: 0-2 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Austria Lustenau or draw 29%, LASK or draw 89%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Austria Lustenau – LASK
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT: The head-to-head record, with fewer than six encounters between Austria Lustenau and LASK since 2022, offers limited guidance. Instead, the spotlight shifts to current form and expected goals, where stark contrasts emerge. Lustenau's struggles are evident as they sit on 8 points, overshadowed by LASK's more robust 16. Expected goals (xG) metrics amplify this divide: Lustenau trails with a meager 0.86 expected goals at home against LASK's commanding 2.52.
Lustenau's style, which leans on a low defense and direct approach, faces a stiff challenge against LASK's possession-driven, high-pressing game. This tactical mismatch favors the visitors, especially as LASK's defense allows just 0.92 expected goals against (xGA) per match compared to Lustenau's porous 1.6. Even on expected points, LASK maintains superiority, 14.9 to 10.2, reflecting their efficiency and threat in the league.
The model suggests a 71% probability for a LASK victory, with the most likely scorelines pointing towards 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (9%), and 0-3 (9%) outcomes. The expectation of 66% for over 2.5 goals aligns with the visitors' attacking prowess. Rain is forecast at 6.9 mm, which could temper scoring slightly, but the model already accounts for such conditions, maintaining its emphasis on a high-scoring affair.
The visitors' dominance in every statistical measure makes a LASK victory an appealing choice, especially considering the undermined resistance they’ll likely face. As such, a 2-0 or 3-0 win for LASK appears the prudent call, emphasizing the disparity in form and capability.
Austria LustenauForm DLLWL
League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #9xP/match #8Points #8
Key players
- Dion KacuriCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.07
- Albin GashiLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.07
- Antonio VerinacFxG 0.26 · xT 0.10
LASKForm WWLDL
League ranking xG #3xGA #1xT #1xP/match #2Points #3
Key players
- Moses UsorFxG 0.64 · xT 0.12
- Sascha HorvathLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.20
- Christoph LangLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.14
Final score
0 – 4
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Austria Lustenau 11% · Draw 18% · LASK 71%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - LASKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,05fair 3,99-24 %
MissMatchresultat - Austria LustenauBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 15,63fair 35,64-56 %
MissMatch prediction: Austria Lustenau – LASK
Predicted score matrix
LASK →
Austria Lustenau →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.6%
0–18.4%
0–210.9%
0–39.1%
0–4+10.5%
1
1–02.7%
1–17.6%
1–29.3%
1–37.8%
1–4+9.0%
2
2–01.3%
2–13.2%
2–24.0%
2–33.3%
2–4+3.8%
3
3–00.4%
3–10.9%
3–21.1%
3–31.0%
3–4+1.1%
4+
4+–00.1%
4+–10.2%
4+–20.3%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-211%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-39%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-38%
Expected goals
0,86–2,52
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
220%
322%
419%
5+25%
Under 2,534%
@3.05EV+5%
Over 2,566%
@1.44
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- LASK to win71%
- Over 2.5 goals66%
- Alessandro André Schöpf to score34%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals66%
- Alessandro André Schöpf to score34%
- Dion Kacuri to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.534% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- Under 2.534% probability@3.05NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
- Under 3.556% probability@1.85BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Austria Lustenau | X | 2 · LASK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 6.50 | 4.75 | 1.40 |
| Betsafe | 6.80 | 4.80 | 1.36 |
| Nordicbet | 6.80 | 4.80 | 1.36 |
| Pinnacle | 8.00 | 5.13 | 1.38 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:37
Odds movement
1+9 %
14 %9 %
7.34 → 8.00
X-4 %
21 %16 %
5.36 → 5.13
2+4 %
72 %67 %
1.33 → 1.38
Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Austria Lustenau
LASK
Austria Lustenau (11–15)
LASK (19–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Austria Lustenau
LASK
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Austria Lustenau
LASK
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Austria Lustenau | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 16 |
| xPoints | 10.2 | 14.9 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 0.92 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.45 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | Austria Lustenau | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.75 |
| xT per match | 0.83 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.68 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 19 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 6 |
| Pass completion % | 0.68 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 245 | 425 |
| Passes against per match | 370 | 301 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.1 | 44.2 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 50 |
| Set pieces | Austria Lustenau | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 5.1 | 7.8 |
| Corners against per match | 7.1 | 1.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.61 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.82 |
| Other | Austria Lustenau | LASK |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Domenik Schierl (Austria Lustenau) | Lukas Jungwirth (LASK) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 28 | 14 |
| Save % | 72% | 61% |
| xG prevented | 43% | 48% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Austria Lustenau vs LASK according to our model?
The model gives LASK a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Austria Lustenau 11%, draw 18%, LASK 71%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Austria Lustenau vs LASK?
The model expects 0.86 goals (xG) for Austria Lustenau and 2.52 for LASK, 3.38 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Austria Lustenau or draw (1X) 29%, LASK or draw (X2) 89% and no draw (12) 82%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.