01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Sturm Graz to win64%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Austrian Bundesliga13°7 km/h
Läs på svenska
Sturm GrazPossession & high press6–1
Grazer AKLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Sturm Graz (64%)
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK · Austrian Bundesliga
1 · Sturm Graz 64%X 21%16% Grazer AK · 2
64%
21%
16%
Prediction summary
Final score 6–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK (Austrian Bundesliga, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Sturm Graz win 64%, draw 21%, Grazer AK win 16%. Expected goals (xG): Sturm Graz 1.96, Grazer AK 0.96. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Sturm Graz or draw 84%, Grazer AK or draw 36%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Sturm Graz – Grazer AK
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Sturm Graz's recent dominance over Grazer AK, winning all four encounters since 2022, sets up a compelling narrative for their upcoming clash. However, this is a small sample and less indicative of future performance than the current form and expected goals. The hosts' style, marked by possession and high pressing, contrasts sharply with the visitors' defensive and direct approach. This tactical disparity suggests an intriguing battle, where Graz's proficiency at home could tilt the scales in their favor.
The numbers underpinning this matchup present a clear picture. Sturm Graz not only holds an edge in both points and expected points but also excels in the expected goals metric, boasting 1.96 to the visitors' 0.96. While their expected goals against figure (1.4) suggests vulnerability, Grazer AK's defensive frailty (1.8 xGA) could be their undoing. The model reflects these insights, giving the hosts a 64% chance of victory, supported by a similar win rate in their historical home matches.
Despite the inclination toward over 2.5 goals at 56%, the likelihood of a 1-1, 2-0, or 1-0 scoreline underscores a more controlled affair. Grazer AK will likely aim to frustrate the home side with their compact defense. Still, the visitors' strategy might struggle against the aggressive pressing game of Sturm Graz, whose attacking prowess is unlikely to be stifled entirely.
The sharpest angle here centers on the value at LeoVegas. With the hosts priced at 1.7 and the model rating their win probability at 64%, there's an 8% edge worth seizing. While no outcome is certain, the numbers offer a compelling case for backing Sturm Graz to maintain their perfect record against Grazer AK.
Sturm GrazForm DLWLW
League ranking xG #5xGA #5xT #3xP/match #5Points #4
Key players
- Jon Gorenc StankovicCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.16
- Emran SogloLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.27
- Luca WeinhandlCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.21
Grazer AKForm LDWDD
League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #6xP/match #10Points #7
Key players
- Yannick OberleitnerCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.10
- Alexander HofleitnerFxG 0.24 · xT 0.10
- Leon KlassenLWBxG 0.09 · xT 0.19
Final score
6 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Sturm Graz 64% · Draw 21% · Grazer AK 16%
Match prediction: Sturm Graz – Grazer AK
Predicted score matrix
Grazer AK →
Sturm Graz →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.7%
0–14.9%
0–22.5%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–010.2%
1–110.4%
1–24.9%
1–31.6%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–010.3%
2–19.9%
2–24.8%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–06.8%
3–16.5%
3–23.1%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–05.2%
4+–15.0%
4+–22.4%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-010%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
1,96–0,96
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.15
Over 2,556%
@1.75
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Sturm Graz to win64%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Simon Seidl to score39%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Simon Seidl to score39%
- Liam Hermesh to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Sturm Graz64% probability@1.85PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
- 1 · Sturm Graz64% probability@1.83LeoVegasEV+16%reference odds
- 1 · Sturm Graz64% probability@1.67Bet365EV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sturm Graz | X | 2 · Grazer AK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | EV+ 6% 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 16% 1.83 | 3.65 | 3.85 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 17% 1.85 | 3.88 | 4.13 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 12:15
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Grazer AK win since 14 October — the odds have shortened from 4.52 to 4.13 (−9%).
1+9 %
56 %51 %
1.70 → 1.85
X-3 %
27 %22 %
4.02 → 3.88
2-9 %
25 %20 %
4.52 → 4.13
Over 2,5+5 %
58 %53 %
1.67 → 1.75
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesSturm Graz 4Draw 0Grazer AK 0
Goals: 12–4 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- SK Sturm Graz win 61% of their home matches all-time (67 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sturm Graz
Grazer AK
Sturm Graz (10–9)
Grazer AK (6–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sturm Graz
Grazer AK
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sturm Graz
Grazer AK
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sturm Graz | Grazer AK |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 9 |
| xPoints | 11.5 | 9 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 0.96 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.58 |
| Playing style | Sturm Graz | Grazer AK |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 0.99 |
| xTA per match | 0.91 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 31 | 31 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.68 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 275 | 291 |
| Passes against per match | 289 | 368 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.2 | 24.1 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Sturm Graz | Grazer AK |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 7.6 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 4.7 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.34 | 0.55 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.6 |
| Other | Sturm Graz | Grazer AK |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Daniil Khudyakov (Sturm Graz) | Cican Stanković (Grazer AK) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 12 | 29 |
| Save % | 71% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 64% | 30% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK according to our model?
The model gives Sturm Graz a 64% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sturm Graz 64%, draw 21%, Grazer AK 16%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK?
The model expects 1.96 goals (xG) for Sturm Graz and 0.96 for Grazer AK, 2.93 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Sturm Graz or draw (1X) 84%, Grazer AK or draw (X2) 36% and no draw (12) 79%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.