01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Wolfsberg or draw (1X)68%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Austrian Bundesliga12°7 km/h
Läs på svenska
WolfsbergLow block & direct0–2
WSG TirolPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Wolfsberg (39%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 17.00 (+47 %)
Wolfsberg vs WSG Tirol · Austrian Bundesliga
1 · Wolfsberg 39%X 29%32% WSG Tirol · 2
39%
29%
32%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Wolfsberg vs WSG Tirol (Austrian Bundesliga, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Wolfsberg win 39%, draw 29%, WSG Tirol win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Wolfsberg 1.33, WSG Tirol 1.17. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Wolfsberg or draw 68%, WSG Tirol or draw 61%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Wolfsberg – WSG Tirol
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT CORRECTED:
Wolfsberg's current four-match losing streak sets a bleak stage for their clash with WSG Tirol. Despite the home advantage, the model gives them a mere 39% chance of victory, though it still slightly leans toward Wolfsberger AC overall, even as WSG Tirol holds the edge in underlying numbers like xPoints and xG. WSG Tirol's possession-based approach contrasts with Wolfsberg's direct play, yet the hosts' defensive fragility is apparent in their higher xGA numbers.
In terms of historical head-to-head, WSG Tirol holds a slight edge with two wins to Wolfsberg's one in their last six encounters. However, this small sample size should not overshadow current form and expected goals. The most likely result as per the model is a 1-1 draw, closely followed by a slim 1-0 victory for either side. This aligns with the expected goals, showing a tightly contested affair with Wolfsberg at 1.33 and WSG Tirol at 1.17.
The betting markets present a notable opportunity on the goal line. LeoVegas offers under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.3, representing a significant value bet with a 26% edge according to the model. Despite high-scoring tendencies historically, the numbers suggest a more restrained outcome this time, making the under 2.5 bet a shrewd choice for the value-conscious punter.
WolfsbergForm DLLLL
League ranking xG #10xGA #12xT #11xP/match #11Points #12
Key players
- Nicolas WimmerCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
- Cheikh Mamadou DiabatéCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.02
- Thorsten SchrieblFxG 0.00 · xT 0.01
WSG TirolForm WWDLL
League ranking xG #6xGA #8xT #12xP/match #6Points #9
Key players
- David GugganigCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
- Marco BorasCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
- Moritz OswaldLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
Final score
0 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Wolfsberg 39% · Draw 29% · WSG Tirol 32%
Match prediction: Wolfsberg – WSG Tirol
Predicted score matrix
WSG Tirol →
Wolfsberg →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.7%
0–19.3%
0–25.6%
0–32.2%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–010.6%
1–113.2%
1–27.5%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.3%
2–18.5%
2–24.9%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.2%
3–13.7%
3–22.2%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–11.7%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,33–1,17
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
@2.35EV+28%
Over 2,545%
@1.74
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Wolfsberg or draw (1X)68%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Giacomo Vrioni to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Giacomo Vrioni to score21%
- Marc Striednig to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.59% probability@17.00Bet365EV+47%reference odds
- Under 1.529% probability@5.00Bet365EV+43%reference odds
- Under 2.555% probability@2.35Bet365EV+28%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Wolfsberg | X | 2 · WSG Tirol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.35 | EV+ 3% 3.60 | 2.63 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 14% 2.90 | 3.45 | 2.25 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 14% 2.90 | 3.43 | 2.50 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an WSG Tirol win since 16 October — the odds have shortened from 2.81 to 2.50 (−11%).
1+17 %
41 %31 %
2.48 → 2.90
X+1 %
33 %23 %
3.41 → 3.43
2-11 %
41 %31 %
2.81 → 2.50
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesWolfsberg 1Draw 3WSG Tirol 2
Goals: 8–10 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- WSG Tirol dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
- Wolfsberger AC have lost 4 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Wolfsberg
WSG Tirol
Wolfsberg (7–16)
WSG Tirol (10–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Wolfsberg
WSG Tirol
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Wolfsberg
WSG Tirol
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Wolfsberg | WSG Tirol |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 8 |
| xPoints | 7.6 | 11.2 |
| xG per match | 0.98 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| Playing style | Wolfsberg | WSG Tirol |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| Field tilt | 0.35 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 0.77 | 0.7 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 279 | 369 |
| Passes against per match | 400 | 371 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.5 | 19.3 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Wolfsberg | WSG Tirol |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 5.8 |
| Corners against per match | 6.3 | 5.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.7 |
| Other | Wolfsberg | WSG Tirol |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Lukas Gütlbauer (Wolfsberg) | Salko Hamzic (WSG Tirol) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 22 | 31 |
| Save % | 60% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 36% | 51% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Wolfsberg vs WSG Tirol according to our model?
The model gives Wolfsberg a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wolfsberg 39%, draw 29%, WSG Tirol 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Wolfsberg vs WSG Tirol?
The model expects 1.33 goals (xG) for Wolfsberg and 1.17 for WSG Tirol, 2.49 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Wolfsberg or draw (1X) 68%, WSG Tirol or draw (X2) 61% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.