01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Ried or draw (1X)64%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Austrian Bundesliga12°2,4 mm7 km/h
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RiedPossession control3–2
Austria WienPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Ried (39%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 17.00 (+14 %)
Ried vs Austria Wien · Austrian Bundesliga
1 · Ried 39%X 29%32% Austria Wien · 2
39%
29%
32%
Prediction summary
Final score 3–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Ried vs Austria Wien (Austrian Bundesliga, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Ried win 39%, draw 29%, Austria Wien win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Ried 1.39, Austria Wien 1.37. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Ried or draw 68%, Austria Wien or draw 61%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Ried – Austria Wien
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Ried enters this contest with a slight edge over Austria Wien, according to the model probabilities that tip the hosts at 39% to win. Despite this, the most likely scoreline remains a draw, with a 1-1 outcome sitting at 12%. Ried's consistent scoring streak in eight consecutive league matches suggests they should find the net against Austria Wien, who have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 expected goals against per match.
The head-to-head record between these teams is limited, with just two matches since 2022, both ending in favor of Austria Wien. Such a small sample holds little weight against current form and expected goals statistics, where Ried clearly leads. They have been more productive with an xG per match of 1.8 compared to Austria Wien's 0.78. This offensive edge, coupled with home advantage, could be pivotal.
Rain is in the forecast, which may slightly suppress scoring chances, but with a 52% likelihood for over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring, neither defense is expected to completely shut down the other. Both teams' possession-control styles add another layer of intrigue, as they'll likely battle for midfield dominance.
Ried's visible advantage in points (11 vs. 7) and xPoints (12.5 vs. 6.5) further emphasizes their current superiority. If Austria Wien is to snatch a result, they will need to defy their defensive vulnerabilities and capitalize on the few opportunities they create. But given the data, a 1-1 draw feels like the most probable outcome.
For those seeking value, a draw at odds of 3.45 with either Betsafe or Nordicbet offers a slight edge, as the model rates the likelihood at 29%, providing just enough incentive for a calculated punt.
RiedForm WLDWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #7xP/match #4Points #5
Key players
- Philipp PomerLWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.27
- Moegamat Yusuf MaartCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
- Yussef NasraweCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.15
Austria WienForm LLWDL
League ranking xG #12xGA #10xT #8xP/match #12Points #10
Key players
- Valentino MullerCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
- Manfred FischerCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.07
- Reinhold RanftlCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.23
Final score
3 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Ried 39% · Draw 29% · Austria Wien 32%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Austria WienBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,74fair 10,14-34 %
MissMatchresultat - SV RiedBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,24fair 9,83-37 %
HitMatch prediction: Ried – Austria Wien
Predicted score matrix
Austria Wien →
Ried →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.7%
0–18.3%
0–25.9%
0–32.7%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–08.5%
1–112.4%
1–28.2%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–06.1%
2–18.4%
2–25.7%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–02.8%
3–13.9%
3–22.7%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.3%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-08%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,39–1,37
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,548%
@2.31EV+9%
Over 2,552%
@1.90
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Ried or draw (1X)64%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Evan Eghosa Aisowieren to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Evan Eghosa Aisowieren to score20%
- Johannes Handl to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.57% probability@17.00BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
- Under 0.57% probability@17.00NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
- X · Draw29% probability@3.82PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Ried | X | 2 · Austria Wien |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Betsafe | 2.42 | EV+ 1% 3.45 | 2.62 |
| Nordicbet | 2.42 | EV+ 1% 3.45 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.46 | EV+ 12% 3.82 | 2.70 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:37
Odds movement
1+5 %
45 %35 %
2.35 → 2.46
X-1 %
30 %20 %
3.84 → 3.82
2-1 %
40 %30 %
2.72 → 2.70
Over 2,50 %
61 %51 %
1.65 → 1.65
Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesRied 0Draw 0Austria Wien 2
Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.
Key facts
- SV Ried have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Ried
Austria Wien
Ried (13–13)
Austria Wien (7–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Ried
Austria Wien
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Ried
Austria Wien
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Ried | Austria Wien |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 7 |
| xPoints | 12.5 | 6.5 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 0.78 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Ried | Austria Wien |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 0.95 | 0.93 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| Passes per match | 320 | 341 |
| Passes against per match | 388 | 375 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.8 | 25.9 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Ried | Austria Wien |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 4.4 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.6 |
| Other | Ried | Austria Wien |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Andreas Leitner (Ried) | Samuel Sahin Radlinger (Austria Wien) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 28 | 25 |
| Save % | 68% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 51% | 38% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Ried vs Austria Wien according to our model?
The model gives Ried a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ried 39%, draw 29%, Austria Wien 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Ried vs Austria Wien?
The model expects 1.39 goals (xG) for Ried and 1.37 for Austria Wien, 2.76 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Ried or draw (1X) 68%, Austria Wien or draw (X2) 61% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.