Austrian Bundesliga12°8 km/h

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    Rapid WienRapid WienPossession control
    3–1
    HartbergHartbergCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Rapid Wien (73%)Best value by the model: 2 · Hartberg @ 10.50 (+11 %)

    Rapid Wien vs Hartberg · Austrian Bundesliga

    1 · Rapid Wien 73%X 16%11% Hartberg · 2

    Prediction summary

    Final score 3–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Rapid Wien vs Hartberg (Austrian Bundesliga, Friday, 16 October 2026): Rapid Wien win 73%, draw 16%, Hartberg win 11%. Expected goals (xG): Rapid Wien 2.69, Hartberg 0.81. Most likely score: 2-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Rapid Wien or draw 89%, Hartberg or draw 27%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Rapid Wien – Hartberg

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT:

    Rapid Wien's recent form is a study in dominance, with three consecutive wins and a scoring streak extending to ten league matches. Their style of possession control promises to dictate the flow against Hartberg, who rely on counterattacks and crosses. Given Rapid's home win rate of 61% and the model's 73% win probability, the hosts are clearly favored. The expected goals align with this narrative, suggesting a 2-0 or 3-0 win as the most likely outcomes.

    Despite the head-to-head record being evenly split since 2022, that small sample pales in comparison to current form and underlying numbers. Rapid outstrip their opponents in xG and xGA, painting a picture of a team not just winning but controlling games decisively. Hartberg's five-match unbeaten run doesn't hide the fact that they average just one expected goal per game, well below Rapid's figure. Such a disparity underscores the home side's attacking prowess.

    The model suggests a 68% probability for over 2.5 goals, given Rapid's firepower and Hartberg's vulnerabilities in defense, averaging 1.8 xGA per match. However, with both teams to score pegged lower at 52%, the visitors' chances of finding the net appear contingent on capitalizing on limited opportunities. While goals seem likely, the distribution leans heavily towards Rapid, with a clean sheet still in play.

    For the bold bettor, the away win at odds of 9.7 holds slight value, representing a 2% edge with Betsafe and Nordicbet. Yet, this is more of a speculative venture given Hartberg's slim 11% win probability. The smart money tilts toward a comfortable home victory by a two-goal margin, with 2-0 or 3-0 looking like the safest bets on the board.

    Rapid WienRapid Wien
    Form WLWWW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #2xP/match #1Points #1
    Key players
    • Matthias SeidlCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
    • Ercan KaraFxG 0.93 · xT -0.08
    • Bendeguz BollaRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.37
    HartbergHartberg
    Form WWDDW
    League ranking xG #9xGA #11xT #10xP/match #9Points #6
    Key players
    • Benjamin MarkusCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
    • Marco HoffmannFxG 0.59 · xT 0.00
    • Lukas SpendlhoferCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
    Final score
    3 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Rapid Wien 73% · Draw 16% · Hartberg 11%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Rapid WienBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,22fair 3,75-14 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - HartbergBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 29,89fair 43,08-31 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Rapid Wien – Hartberg

    Predicted score matrix

    Hartberg →
    Rapid Wien →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.2%
    0–12.3%
    0–21.0%
    0–30.3%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–07.9%
    1–16.8%
    1–22.7%
    1–30.7%
    1–4+0.2%
    2
    2–010.9%
    2–18.9%
    2–23.6%
    2–31.0%
    2–4+0.2%
    3
    3–09.8%
    3–17.9%
    3–23.2%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–012.6%
    4+–110.2%
    4+–24.2%
    4+–31.1%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-011%
    2. 2.3-010%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.3-18%
    5. 5.1-08%
    Expected goals
    2,69–0,81
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,5
    Under 2,532%
    @2.92
    Over 2,568%
    @1.37

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Rapid Wien to win73%
    • Over 1.5 goals87%

    Combined probability

    69%

    Fair odds

    1.45

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Rapid Wien to win73%
    • Over 2.5 goals68%
    • Tonni Adamsen to score30%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals68%
    • Tonni Adamsen to score30%
    • Benjamin Markuš to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Hartberg11% probability@10.50BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
    • 2 · Hartberg11% probability@10.50NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
    • X · Draw16% probability@6.67PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Rapid WienX2 · Hartberg
    Betsafe1.206.10
    EV+ 11%
    10.50
    LeoVegas1.256.009.00
    Nordicbet1.206.10
    EV+ 11%
    10.50
    Pinnacle1.25
    EV+ 8%
    6.67
    EV+ 5%
    9.93

    Odds updated 16 Oct, 13:36

    Odds movement

    1-2 %
    77 %72 %

    1.28 → 1.25

    X+10 %
    17 %12 %

    6.06 → 6.67

    2+17 %
    13 %8 %

    8.48 → 9.93

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 16/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Rapid Wien 2Draw 2Hartberg 2
    Goals: 7–8 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Austrian Bundesliga data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • SK Rapid Vienna come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    • SK Rapid Vienna have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
    • TSV Hartberg are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    • SK Rapid Vienna win 61% of their home matches all-time (38 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Rapid Wien
    Hartberg
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Rapid Wien (23–7)
    Hartberg (14–16)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Rapid Wien
    Serge Philippe Raux Yao: 322 passningar, xT 0.27YaoNenad Cvetkovic: 317 passningar, xT 0.31CvetkovicBendeguz Bolla: 311 passningar, xT 2.2BollaMatthias Seidl: 289 passningar, xT 0.11SeidlNicolas Bajlicz: 279 passningar, xT 0.28BajliczYusuf Demir: 201 passningar, xT 0.63DemirNiklas Hedl: 187 passningar, xT 0.03HedlJannes-Kilian Horn: 176 passningar, xT 1.07HornTonni Adamsen: 93 passningar, xT 0.25AdamsenEaden Roka: 89 passningar, xT 0.2RokaPetter Nosakhare Dahl: 58 passningar, xT 0.08Dahl
    Hartberg
    Paul Komposch: 224 passningar, xT 0.17KomposchBenjamin Markus: 174 passningar, xT 0.12MarkusKonstantin Schopp: 166 passningar, xT 0.41SchoppÁrmin Pécsi: 123 passningar, xT 0.1PécsiFabian Wilfinger: 115 passningar, xT 0.41WilfingerYouba Diarra: 101 passningar, xT 0.14DiarraTobias Kainz: 97 passningar, xT 0.15KainzMagnus Dalpiaz: 88 passningar, xT 0.09DalpiazMarco Hoffmann: 71 passningar, xT -0.03HoffmannHabib Anas Coulibaly: 71 passningar, xT 0.13CoulibalyOliver Lukic: 69 passningar, xT 0.21Lukic
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Rapid Wien
    Serge Philippe Raux Yao: 322 passningar, xT 0.27YaoNenad Cvetkovic: 317 passningar, xT 0.31CvetkovicBendeguz Bolla: 311 passningar, xT 2.2BollaMatthias Seidl: 289 passningar, xT 0.11SeidlNicolas Bajlicz: 279 passningar, xT 0.28BajliczYusuf Demir: 201 passningar, xT 0.63DemirNiklas Hedl: 187 passningar, xT 0.03HedlJannes-Kilian Horn: 176 passningar, xT 1.07HornTonni Adamsen: 93 passningar, xT 0.25AdamsenEaden Roka: 89 passningar, xT 0.2RokaPetter Nosakhare Dahl: 58 passningar, xT 0.08Dahl
    Hartberg
    Paul Komposch: 224 passningar, xT 0.17KomposchBenjamin Markus: 174 passningar, xT 0.12MarkusKonstantin Schopp: 166 passningar, xT 0.41SchoppÁrmin Pécsi: 123 passningar, xT 0.1PécsiFabian Wilfinger: 115 passningar, xT 0.41WilfingerYouba Diarra: 101 passningar, xT 0.14DiarraTobias Kainz: 97 passningar, xT 0.15KainzMagnus Dalpiaz: 88 passningar, xT 0.09DalpiazMarco Hoffmann: 71 passningar, xT -0.03HoffmannHabib Anas Coulibaly: 71 passningar, xT 0.13CoulibalyOliver Lukic: 69 passningar, xT 0.21Lukic

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceRapid WienHartberg
    Points2111
    xPoints14.99.4
    xG per match2.41
    xGA per match11.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.710.2
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.130.36
    Playing styleRapid WienHartberg
    Build-up efficiency0.330.28
    Field tilt0.630.26
    xT per match1.60.79
    xTA per match0.811.6
    Won balls, offensive half2321
    Pressing intensity0.240.24
    Pressing efficiency0.290.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.19
    Entries into the box per match159
    Entries into the box against1019
    Pass completion %0.840.73
    Pass completion % under pressure0.780.68
    Passes per match522294
    Passes against per match351421
    Switches of play per match28.521.3
    Long balls per match3531
    Set piecesRapid WienHartberg
    xG from free kicks0.030.04
    Corners per match5.63.7
    Corners against per match3.19.4
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.040.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.560.34
    First touch, defensive corners %0.520.59
    OtherRapid WienHartberg
    Throw-in control0.750.72
    The goalkeepersNiklas Hedl (Rapid Wien)Ármin Pécsi (Hartberg)
    Saves2431
    Save %77%66%
    xG prevented54%49%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Rapid Wien
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Hartberg
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Rapid Wien vs Hartberg according to our model?

    The model gives Rapid Wien a 73% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rapid Wien 73%, draw 16%, Hartberg 11%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Rapid Wien vs Hartberg?

    The model expects 2.69 goals (xG) for Rapid Wien and 0.81 for Hartberg, 3.50 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Rapid Wien or draw (1X) 89%, Hartberg or draw (X2) 27% and no draw (12) 84%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.