01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Górnik Zabrze to win58%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Ekstraklasa10°13 km/h
Läs på svenska
Górnik ZabrzePossession control1–1
Piast GliwiceBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Górnik Zabrze (58%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.20 (+5 %)
Górnik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice · Ekstraklasa
1 · Górnik Zabrze 58%X 25%17% Piast Gliwice · 2
58%
25%
17%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Górnik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice (Ekstraklasa, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Górnik Zabrze win 58%, draw 25%, Piast Gliwice win 17%. Expected goals (xG): Górnik Zabrze 1.89, Piast Gliwice 1.21. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Górnik Zabrze or draw 83%, Piast Gliwice or draw 42%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Górnik Zabrze – Piast Gliwice
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Three wins in the last four head-to-head clashes since 2023 tilt the balance toward Górnik Zabrze when facing Piast Gliwice. Although the sample is small, it reflects a tangible edge for the hosts. The current form strengthens this narrative: Zabrze is riding a six-match unbeaten streak in the league. Their possession-driven style contrasts with Gliwice's physical approach, suggesting a potential midfield battle where Zabrze's control could dictate the tempo.
Zabrze's underlying numbers further bolster their odds. With an expected goals (xG) tally of 1.89 per match compared to Gliwice's 1.21, the hosts' attacking efficiency stands out. Defensively, Zabrze also hold the upper hand with an expected goals against (xGA) of just 0.96 compared to their visitors' 1.8. This dual advantage in attack and defense aligns with their solid 58% win rate at home — a venue where they've thrived historically.
While the model assigns Górnik a 58% chance to win, the most likely individual outcomes — 1-1, 2-1, 1-0 — suggest a closely contested match. The expected goals hint at a game that could see both sides on the score sheet, supporting a 60% probability for both teams to find the net. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands equally at 60%, indicating a game tilted slightly towards higher scoring.
Betting value emerges with the over 2.5 goals market. Both Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds at 1.7, providing a 2% edge according to the model, making it a compelling choice for punters seeking value. LeoVegas offers slightly lower odds at 1.68, matching the model's valuation without edge. In a contest where Zabrze is expected to leverage their form and tactical strengths, aligning with the over 2.5 goals bet seems a sharp play for this Ekstraklasa encounter.
Górnik ZabrzeForm WWWDW
League ranking xG #8xGA #2xT #10xP/match #2Points #1
Key players
- José Manuel Sánchez GuillénCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.10
- Rafał JanickiCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.07
- Erik JanžaLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.27
Piast GliwiceForm WWWLW
League ranking xG #18xGA #15xT #16xP/match #16Points #6
Key players
- Jakub CzerwinskiCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.03
- Quentin BoisgardCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.10
- Juande RivasCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.05
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Górnik Zabrze 58% · Draw 25% · Piast Gliwice 17%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Piast GliwiceBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 18,60fair 13,60+37 %
MissMatchresultat - Gornik ZabrzeBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,70fair 5,54-15 %
MissMatch prediction: Górnik Zabrze – Piast Gliwice
Predicted score matrix
Piast Gliwice →
Górnik Zabrze →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.8%
0–15.2%
0–23.3%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–08.2%
1–110.6%
1–26.2%
1–32.5%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–08.1%
2–19.7%
2–25.9%
2–32.4%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–05.1%
3–16.1%
3–23.7%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–03.7%
4+–14.5%
4+–22.7%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
1,89–1,21
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
@2.17
Over 2,560%
@1.72EV+2%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Górnik Zabrze to win58%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Erik Prekop to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Erik Prekop to score24%
- Oskar Leśniak to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw25% probability@4.20LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
- Over 2.560% probability@1.72PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
- X · Draw25% probability@4.08PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Górnik Zabrze | X | 2 · Piast Gliwice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.52 | 3.95 | 5.30 |
| LeoVegas | 1.53 | EV+ 5% 4.20 | 5.25 |
| Nordicbet | 1.52 | 3.95 | 5.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | EV+ 2% 4.08 | 5.54 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 12:15
Odds movement
1+2 %
63 %58 %
1.57 → 1.61
X-2 %
25 %20 %
4.17 → 4.08
2+6 %
20 %15 %
5.25 → 5.54
Over 2,50 %
58 %53 %
1.72 → 1.72
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesGórnik Zabrze 3Draw 0Piast Gliwice 1
Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 1,8)
Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.
Key facts
- Gornik Zabrze are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
- Gornik Zabrze win 58% of their home matches all-time (38 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Górnik Zabrze
Piast Gliwice
Górnik Zabrze (19–9)
Piast Gliwice (18–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Górnik Zabrze
Piast Gliwice
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Górnik Zabrze
Piast Gliwice
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Górnik Zabrze | Piast Gliwice |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 25 | 16 |
| xPoints | 17.6 | 11 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 0.96 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| Playing style | Górnik Zabrze | Piast Gliwice |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.84 |
| xTA per match | 0.94 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 330 | 405 |
| Passes against per match | 362 | 290 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.3 | 23.1 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 24 |
| Set pieces | Górnik Zabrze | Piast Gliwice |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| Corners against per match | 3.9 | 7.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| Other | Górnik Zabrze | Piast Gliwice |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| The goalkeepers | Philipp Schulze (Górnik Zabrze) | Domen Gril (Piast Gliwice) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 24 | 36 |
| Save % | 73% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 60% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Górnik Zabrze spelschemaPiast Gliwice spelschema
- Widzew Łódź – Wisla Krakow16 October 2026
- Wieczysta Kraków – Raków Częstochowa16 October 2026
- Motor Lublin – Slask Wroclaw17 October 2026
- KS Cracovia – Legia Warszawa17 October 2026
- GKS Katowice – Pogoń Szczecin17 October 2026
- Lech Poznań – Korona Kielce18 October 2026
- Zagłębie Lubin – Jagiellonia Białystok18 October 2026
- Wisła Płock – Radomiak Radom19 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Górnik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice according to our model?
The model gives Górnik Zabrze a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Górnik Zabrze 58%, draw 25%, Piast Gliwice 17%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Górnik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
The model expects 1.89 goals (xG) for Górnik Zabrze and 1.21 for Piast Gliwice, 3.10 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Górnik Zabrze or draw (1X) 83%, Piast Gliwice or draw (X2) 42% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.