01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Wisła Płock to win50%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Ekstraklasa6°6 km/h
Läs på svenska
Wisła PłockCounter-attacks & crosses1–0
Radomiak RadomCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Wisła Płock (50%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.53 (+7 %)
Wisła Płock vs Radomiak Radom · Ekstraklasa
1 · Wisła Płock 50%X 25%25% Radomiak Radom · 2
50%
25%
25%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Wisła Płock vs Radomiak Radom (Ekstraklasa, Monday, 19 October 2026): Wisła Płock win 50%, draw 25%, Radomiak Radom win 25%. Expected goals (xG): Wisła Płock 1.58, Radomiak Radom 1.20. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Wisła Płock or draw 75%, Radomiak Radom or draw 50%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Wisła Płock – Radomiak Radom
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Wisła Płock host Radomiak Radom, with the home side holding a slight edge despite not winning in their last two head-to-head encounters. The recent form tilts in their favor: Radomiak have lost their last three games, whereas the home side has managed to pick up 11 points so far. This, along with a higher probability for a Wisła win (50% according to the model), underscores their potential advantage.
The expected goals also lean towards Wisła with 1.58 against Radomiak's 1.20, suggesting a slight edge in offensive production. Both teams, however, play similarly, favoring counter-attacks and crosses. This symmetry in styles could lead to a tactical stalemate, potentially reflected in the most likely scorelines of 1-1 or 1-0. The small sample size of their head-to-head results since 2023 suggests that current form and expected goals are much more telling indicators.
Despite an over 2.5 goals probability of 53%, the recent losing streak of Radomiak and the hosts' slightly better defensive numbers (xGA per match of 1.7 compared to Radomiak's 2.3) hint at a low-scoring affair. The model identifies a particular value in betting under 2.5 goals, with a 7% edge at odds of 2.25 available with both LeoVegas and Betsafe. Meanwhile, an even safer bet might be under 3.5 goals, providing a 7% edge at 1.533 with LeoVegas.
In a match likely defined by counter-attacks and defensive resolve, a narrow 1-0 win for the hosts seems a probable outcome. The emphasis on under 2.5 goals, given the style and form of both sides, is where the sharpest betting angle lies.
Wisła PłockForm LDWWL
League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #14xP/match #12Points #12
Key players
- Marcus Haglind SangreCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.06
- Žan RogeljRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.11
- Adam RadwanskiCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
Radomiak RadomForm WDLLL
League ranking xG #11xGA #17xT #17xP/match #15Points #16
Key players
- Rafal WolskiRWxG 0.30 · xT 0.16
- Guilherme Luiz Oliveira da SilvaFxG 0.34 · xT 0.08
- Jan GrzesikLWBxG 0.19 · xT 0.11
Final score
1 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Wisła Płock 50% · Draw 25% · Radomiak Radom 25%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Radomiak RadomBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,16fair 13,35-31 %
MissMatchresultat - Wisla PlockBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,80fair 7,75-38 %
MissMatch prediction: Wisła Płock – Radomiak Radom
Predicted score matrix
Radomiak Radom →
Wisła Płock →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.5%
0–17.1%
0–24.5%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–09.4%
1–112.1%
1–27.1%
1–32.8%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.7%
2–19.3%
2–25.6%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–04.1%
3–14.9%
3–22.9%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–02.3%
4+–12.8%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,58–1,20
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@2.25EV+7%
Over 2,553%
@1.58
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Wisła Płock to win50%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Saïd Hamulić to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Saïd Hamulić to score23%
- Christos Donis to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.570% probability@1.53LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
- Under 2.547% probability@2.25BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
- Under 2.547% probability@2.25LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Wisła Płock | X | 2 · Radomiak Radom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.88 | 3.55 | 3.60 |
| LeoVegas | 1.88 | 3.65 | 3.65 |
| Nordicbet | 1.88 | 3.55 | 3.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.87 | 3.85 | 3.98 |
Odds updated 19 Oct, 13:35
Odds movement
1-1 %
53 %48 %
1.88 → 1.87
X+2 %
28 %23 %
3.76 → 3.85
2+6 %
27 %22 %
3.76 → 3.98
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesWisła Płock 0Draw 1Radomiak Radom 1
Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.
Key facts
- Radomiak Radom have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Wisła Płock
Radomiak Radom
Wisła Płock (9–15)
Radomiak Radom (9–23)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Wisła Płock
Radomiak Radom
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Wisła Płock
Radomiak Radom
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Wisła Płock | Radomiak Radom |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 8 |
| xPoints | 11.4 | 11.3 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.55 |
| Playing style | Wisła Płock | Radomiak Radom |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| xT per match | 0.97 | 0.77 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 19 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 369 | 317 |
| Passes against per match | 363 | 377 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.1 | 16.9 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 22 |
| Set pieces | Wisła Płock | Radomiak Radom |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.15 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 6.4 | 6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 5.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.34 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| Other | Wisła Płock | Radomiak Radom |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.82 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | Rafal Leszczynski (Wisła Płock) | Filip Majchrowicz (Radomiak Radom) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 24 | 30 |
| Save % | 62% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 39% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Wisła Płock spelschemaRadomiak Radom spelschema
- Widzew Łódź – Wisla Krakow16 October 2026
- Wieczysta Kraków – Raków Częstochowa16 October 2026
- Motor Lublin – Slask Wroclaw17 October 2026
- KS Cracovia – Legia Warszawa17 October 2026
- GKS Katowice – Pogoń Szczecin17 October 2026
- Górnik Zabrze – Piast Gliwice18 October 2026
- Lech Poznań – Korona Kielce18 October 2026
- Zagłębie Lubin – Jagiellonia Białystok18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Wisła Płock vs Radomiak Radom according to our model?
The model gives Wisła Płock a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wisła Płock 50%, draw 25%, Radomiak Radom 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Wisła Płock vs Radomiak Radom?
The model expects 1.58 goals (xG) for Wisła Płock and 1.20 for Radomiak Radom, 2.78 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Wisła Płock or draw (1X) 75%, Radomiak Radom or draw (X2) 50% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Get the bonus
Welcome offer on sport at ComeOn — see the current terms on ComeOn's site.
See ComeOn's terms
Get the bonus
Welcome offer on sport at Hajper — see the current terms on Hajper's site.
See Hajper's terms
Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.