Ekstraklasa11°13 km/h

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    Lech PoznańLech PoznańPossession & high press
    6–1
    Korona KielceKorona KielcePossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Lech Poznań (66%)

    Lech Poznań vs Korona Kielce · Ekstraklasa

    1 · Lech Poznań 66%X 20%14% Korona Kielce · 2

    Prediction summary

    Final score 6–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lech Poznań vs Korona Kielce (Ekstraklasa, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Lech Poznań win 66%, draw 20%, Korona Kielce win 14%. Expected goals (xG): Lech Poznań 2.09, Korona Kielce 1.08. Most likely score: 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Lech Poznań or draw 86%, Korona Kielce or draw 34%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Lech Poznań – Korona Kielce

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Lech Poznań's recent form is underscored by their ability to find the net in eight consecutive league matches, a streak that suggests they are well-equipped to capitalize on Korona Kielce's vulnerabilities. The model strongly favors the hosts, giving them a 66% chance to take the victory, and their historical home win rate of 67% further bolsters this expectation. Poznań’s aggressive possession and high press style should give them the edge over Korona's control-based approach, which may struggle under pressure.

    With expected goals showing a significant disparity—Poznań at 2.09 against Korona's 1.08—the odds clearly lean towards the home side. Their superior xG and xGA figures reveal a more efficient and defensively solid team, likely to dictate the tempo and create more quality chances. The most likely scorelines of 2-1 and 2-0 suggest a tight but decisive win for Poznań, with both teams expected to score at a 58% probability, although the hosts are the more probable victors.

    Lech's dominance in the head-to-head matchups since 2023, even from a small sample of four matches, should not be dismissed entirely. Three wins and a draw are a psychological edge, albeit weighed less than current form and statistical forecasts. Korona will need to disrupt Poznań's rhythm but face an uphill battle based on their lower expected goals and points.

    The odds for over 2.5 goals stand at 61%, making it a reasonable play given both teams' scoring trends and Poznań's attacking prowess. However, the sharpest angle here lies in backing Lech to win, which appears to be the strongest value bet considering the hosts' favorable metrics across the board. The numbers tell a compelling story, with Poznań poised to continue their strong run at home.

    Lech PoznańLech Poznań
    Form WWLWW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #3
    Key players
    • Antoni KozubalCDMxG 0.08 · xT 0.18
    • Wojciech MońkaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
    • Radoslaw MurawskiCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.09
    Korona KielceKorona Kielce
    Form DWLWL
    League ranking xG #15xGA #9xT #18xP/match #11Points #8
    Key players
    • Wiktor DlugoszRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.17
    • Patrik HellebrandCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.05
    • Marcel PieczekLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.17
    Final score
    6 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Lech Poznań 66% · Draw 20% · Korona Kielce 14%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Lech PoznanBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,36fair 4,83-10 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - Korona KielceBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 12,57fair 18,32-31 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Lech Poznań – Korona Kielce

    Predicted score matrix

    Korona Kielce →
    Lech Poznań →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.5%
    0–14.3%
    0–22.4%
    0–30.9%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–08.5%
    1–19.8%
    1–25.1%
    1–31.8%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.2%
    2–19.9%
    2–25.3%
    2–31.9%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–06.4%
    3–16.9%
    3–23.7%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–05.4%
    4+–15.8%
    4+–23.1%
    4+–31.1%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-110%
    2. 2.1-110%
    3. 3.2-09%
    4. 4.1-09%
    5. 5.3-17%
    Expected goals
    2,09–1,08
    Both teams to score
    58%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,539%
    @2.30
    Over 2,561%
    @1.55

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Lech Poznań to win66%
    • Over 1.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.93

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Lech Poznań to win66%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Pablo Rodríguez Delgado to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score58%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Pablo Rodríguez Delgado to score29%
    • Patrik Hellebrand to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Lech Poznań66% probability@1.64LeoVegasEV+9%reference odds
    • 1 · Lech Poznań66% probability@1.62BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
    • 1 · Lech Poznań66% probability@1.62NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Lech PoznańX2 · Korona Kielce
    Betsafe
    EV+ 7%
    1.62    		3.954.50
    LeoVegas
    EV+ 9%
    1.64    		4.104.50
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 7%
    1.62    		3.954.50
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 2%
    1.54    		4.455.80

    Odds updated 18 Oct, 13:35

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Korona Kielce win since 16 October — the odds have shortened from 6.45 to 5.80 (−10%).

    1+7 %
    66 %61 %

    1.44 → 1.54

    X-4 %
    23 %18 %

    4.62 → 4.45

    2-10 %
    18 %13 %

    6.45 → 5.80

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Lech Poznań 3Draw 1Korona Kielce 0
    Goals: 8–4 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Lech Poznan have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
    • Lech Poznan win 67% of their home matches all-time (39 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Lech Poznań
    Korona Kielce
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Lech Poznań (21–8)
    Korona Kielce (12–12)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Lech Poznań
    Wojciech Mońka: 298 passningar, xT 0.21MońkaJoel Pereira: 286 passningar, xT 2.97PereiraMichal Gurgul: 253 passningar, xT 0.45GurgulMateusz Skrzypczak: 224 passningar, xT 0.17SkrzypczakRadoslaw Murawski: 212 passningar, xT 0.33MurawskiMateusz Lis: 122 passningar, xT 0.05LisPablo Rodriguez: 104 passningar, xT 0.79RodriguezFilip Jagiello: 90 passningar, xT 0.37JagielloAllahyar Sayyadmanesh: 61 passningar, xT -0.03SayyadmaneshPatrik Wålemark: 56 passningar, xT 0.93WålemarkMikael Ishak: 47 passningar, xT 0.42Ishak
    Korona Kielce
    Patrik Hellebrand: 297 passningar, xT 0.13HellebrandAriel Mosor: 211 passningar, xT 0.2MosorSlobodan Rubežić: 202 passningar, xT 0.55RubežićWiktor Dlugosz: 181 passningar, xT 0.9DlugoszKamil Jakubczyk: 160 passningar, xT 0.4JakubczykMarcel Pieczek: 154 passningar, xT 0.27PieczekXavier Dziekonski: 117 passningar, xT 0.04DziekonskiMartin Remacle: 87 passningar, xT 0.23RemacleOndřej Lingr: 68 passningar, xT 0.06LingrCamilo Mena: 61 passningar, xT 0.04MenaMichael Ameyaw: 58 passningar, xT 0.12Ameyaw
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Lech Poznań
    Wojciech Mońka: 298 passningar, xT 0.21MońkaJoel Pereira: 286 passningar, xT 2.97PereiraMichal Gurgul: 253 passningar, xT 0.45GurgulMateusz Skrzypczak: 224 passningar, xT 0.17SkrzypczakRadoslaw Murawski: 212 passningar, xT 0.33MurawskiMateusz Lis: 122 passningar, xT 0.05LisPablo Rodriguez: 104 passningar, xT 0.79RodriguezFilip Jagiello: 90 passningar, xT 0.37JagielloAllahyar Sayyadmanesh: 61 passningar, xT -0.03SayyadmaneshPatrik Wålemark: 56 passningar, xT 0.93WålemarkMikael Ishak: 47 passningar, xT 0.42Ishak
    Korona Kielce
    Patrik Hellebrand: 297 passningar, xT 0.13HellebrandAriel Mosor: 211 passningar, xT 0.2MosorSlobodan Rubežić: 202 passningar, xT 0.55RubežićWiktor Dlugosz: 181 passningar, xT 0.9DlugoszKamil Jakubczyk: 160 passningar, xT 0.4JakubczykMarcel Pieczek: 154 passningar, xT 0.27PieczekXavier Dziekonski: 117 passningar, xT 0.04DziekonskiMartin Remacle: 87 passningar, xT 0.23RemacleOndřej Lingr: 68 passningar, xT 0.06LingrCamilo Mena: 61 passningar, xT 0.04MenaMichael Ameyaw: 58 passningar, xT 0.12Ameyaw

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceLech PoznańKorona Kielce
    Points2215
    xPoints16.413.6
    xG per match1.91.4
    xGA per match0.881.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.470.17
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.090.24
    Playing styleLech PoznańKorona Kielce
    Build-up efficiency0.30.32
    Field tilt0.570.52
    xT per match1.60.75
    xTA per match0.91.2
    Won balls, offensive half2425
    Pressing intensity0.240.23
    Pressing efficiency0.290.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.25
    Entries into the box per match1512
    Entries into the box against1114
    Pass completion %0.790.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.71
    Passes per match388343
    Passes against per match321368
    Switches of play per match28.229.2
    Long balls per match3033
    Set piecesLech PoznańKorona Kielce
    xG from free kicks0.030.07
    Corners per match6.94.9
    Corners against per match4.25.5
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.020.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.320.48
    First touch, defensive corners %0.630.54
    OtherLech PoznańKorona Kielce
    Throw-in control0.750.75
    The goalkeepersMateusz Lis (Lech Poznań)Xavier Dziekonski (Korona Kielce)
    Saves2025
    Save %71%68%
    xG prevented52%51%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Lech Poznań
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Korona Kielce
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Lech Poznań spelschemaKorona Kielce spelschema

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Lech Poznań vs Korona Kielce according to our model?

    The model gives Lech Poznań a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lech Poznań 66%, draw 20%, Korona Kielce 14%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Lech Poznań vs Korona Kielce?

    The model expects 2.09 goals (xG) for Lech Poznań and 1.08 for Korona Kielce, 3.16 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Lech Poznań or draw (1X) 86%, Korona Kielce or draw (X2) 34% and no draw (12) 80%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.