Tondela vs Felgueiras Prediction: Home win 49% (1 Nov 2026)

Liga Portugal 21 November 202615°5 km/h

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TondelaPossession control

FelgueirasPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Tondela (49%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.30 (+2 %)

1 · Tondela 49%X 31%20% Felgueiras · 2

49%

31%

20%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Tondela vs Felgueiras (Liga Portugal 2, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Tondela win 49%, draw 31%, Felgueiras win 20%. Expected goals (xG): Tondela 1.44, Felgueiras 0.82. Most likely score: 1-0 (15%). Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%. Double chance: Tondela or draw 80%, Felgueiras or draw 51%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Tondela – Felgueiras

Anna Karlsson · 27 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The decisive question is whether Felgueiras can create enough against Tondela’s defence, because every meaningful indicator points to a home win built on containment rather than a high-scoring contest. The model gives the hosts 49%, the draw 31%, and the visitors 20%; its lean is plainly Tondela. Expected goals sharpen that view: 1.44 to 0.82. My call is 1-0, with under 2.5 goals the stronger total angle.

Both sides profile as possession-control teams, so this need not become an open game simply because neither is built to surrender the ball. The difference lies in what happens without it. The home side concede only 0.77 xGA per match, against 1.1 for the visitors, while their xG per match edge is 1.1 to 0.88. Felgueiras’ main task is not merely keeping possession; it is finding a route through a defence that has given very little away.

Form makes that task harder. Tondela arrive on 3 straight wins, while the visitors have lost 3 in a row. The table indicators support the same direction: 12 points versus 6, and 10.4 xPoints versus 7.9. That xPoints gap matters because it suggests the hosts’ advantage is not just a run of fortunate results. They have produced the more credible underlying season.

There is one piece of resistance to the home narrative. The head-to-head since 2023 reads 2 matches, with Tondela at 0W 1D 1L. But the sample is small and weighs less than current form and expected goals. More useful is the hosts’ 62% home win rate across 21 played, particularly when paired with the visitors’ current losing sequence.

The score distribution fits a restrained match: 1-0 is the most likely scoreline at 15%, ahead of 1-1 at 13% and 2-0 at 11%. Over 2.5 goals sits at just 39%, while both teams to score is 43%. Tondela to win is the match result lean, but under 2.5 goals is the sharpest angle.

Tondela

Form LLWWW

League ranking xG #11xGA #1xT #1xP/match #6Points #7

Key players

Arjen van der HeideRWxG 0.33 · xT 0.20
José Ricardo Avelar RibeiroLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.20
Joao MarcosFxG 0.48 · xT 0.03

Felgueiras

Form DWLLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #7xT #10xP/match #14Points #15

Key players

Francisco FrancaCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.12
Rolando António Pereira Rocha AlmeidaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
Joao PintoCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Tondela – Felgueiras

Predicted score matrix

Felgueiras →

Tondela →

0–010.8%

0–18.2%

0–23.5%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.2%

1–014.6%

1–112.7%

1–25.1%

1–31.4%

1–4+0.3%

2–010.8%

2–18.9%

2–23.6%

2–31.0%

2–4+0.2%

3–05.2%

3–14.3%

3–21.7%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–02.6%

4+–12.1%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-015%
2.1-113%
3.2-011%
4.0-011%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,44–0,82

Both teams to score

43%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

011%

123%

227%

320%

411%

5+8%

Under 2,561%

@1.52

Over 2,539%

@2.32

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Tondela to win49%
Under 3.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Tondela to win49%
Under 2.5 goals61%
João Marcos Lima Cândido to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score43%
Over 2.5 goals39%
João Marcos Lima Cândido to score27%
Eduardo Silvino da Cruz to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw31% probability@3.30BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.30NordicbetEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Tondela	X	2 · Felgueiras
Betsafe	1.88	EV+ 2% 3.30	3.90
Nordicbet	1.88	EV+ 2% 3.30	3.90

Odds updated 27 Oct, 09:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Tondela 0Draw 1Felgueiras 1

Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Liga Portugal 2 data since 2023.

Key facts

Tondela come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Felgueiras 1932 have lost 3 in a row.
Tondela win 62% of their home matches all-time (21 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Tondela

Felgueiras

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Tondela (8–6)

Felgueiras (5–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Tondela

Felgueiras

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Tondela

Felgueiras

The teams in numbers

Performance	Tondela	Felgueiras
Points	12	6
xPoints	10.4	7.9
xG per match	1.1	0.88
xGA per match	0.77	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.11	0.27

Playing style	Tondela	Felgueiras
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.64	0.48
xT per match	1.1	0.86
xTA per match	0.56	0.84
Won balls, offensive half	26	26
Pressing intensity	0.2	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.37	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.22
Entries into the box per match	14	13
Entries into the box against	9	11
Pass completion %	0.71	0.71
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.69
Passes per match	288	275
Passes against per match	281	376
Switches of play per match	27.1	16.8
Long balls per match	36	35

Set pieces	Tondela	Felgueiras
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.02
Corners per match	5.4	4.5
Corners against per match	1.6	5.3
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.54

Other	Tondela	Felgueiras
Throw-in control	0.74	0.7

The goalkeepers	Lucas Cañizares Conchello (Tondela)	Mateus Pasinato (Felgueiras)
Saves	8	19
Save %	73%	73%
xG prevented	23%	61%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Tondela

Fixtures, form & tips

Felgueiras

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Tondela vs Felgueiras according to our model?

The model gives Tondela a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tondela 49%, draw 31%, Felgueiras 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 15% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Tondela vs Felgueiras?

The model expects 1.44 goals (xG) for Tondela and 0.82 for Felgueiras, 2.26 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Tondela or draw (1X) 80%, Felgueiras or draw (X2) 51% and no draw (12) 69%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.