Häcken vs IFK Göteborg Prediction: Home win 45% (1 Nov 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan1 November 2026 16:30 CETRambergsvallen, Göteborg10°3,8 mm18 km/h

Läs på svenska

HäckenCounter-attacks & crosses

IFK GöteborgPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Häcken (45%)Best value by the model: 2 · IFK Göteborg @ 4.04 (+22 %)

1 · Häcken 45%X 25%30% IFK Göteborg · 2

45%

25%

30%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Häcken vs IFK Göteborg (Swedish Allsvenskan, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Häcken win 45%, draw 25%, IFK Göteborg win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Häcken 1.65, IFK Göteborg 1.37. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Häcken or draw 70%, IFK Göteborg or draw 55%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Häcken – IFK Göteborg

Marcus Johansson · 24 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Four wins on the trot for Häcken set the stage for their clash with a resilient IFK Göteborg side, who haven't tasted defeat in their last seven league outings. The model gives a 45% chance of a Häcken victory, supported by their solid edge in points and expected points. Historically, these sides have tended toward high-scoring affairs, averaging a hefty 4.0 goals per meeting. However, with only seven encounters since 2023, this head-to-head sample should be weighed lightly compared to more current form metrics.

Häcken's style leans on counter-attacks and crosses, a contrast to Göteborg's possession-centered approach. Despite the visitors' unbeaten streak, Häcken's recent form and slightly better underlying defensive numbers (xGA 1.1 vs 1.2, with xG per match level at 1.6 apiece) indicate they are the more likely to claim the win. The expected goals suggest a close contest, 1.65 to 1.37 in Häcken's favor, hinting at a narrow home win potentially similar to their 2-1 triumphs of the past.

Betting markets reflect Häcken's slight edge, but goals seem to be in the offing with a 58% probability of over 2.5 and a 61% chance of both teams scoring.

Häcken

Form DWWWW

League ranking xG #5xGA #4xT #3xP/match #4Points #4

Key players

Mikkel Rygaard JensenFxG 0.22 · xT 0.28
Amor LayouniRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.50
Julius LindbergLWxG 0.36 · xT 0.27

IFK Göteborg

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #6xGA #9xT #6xP/match #5Points #9

Key players

Felix ErikssonRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
Alexander JallowLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.14
August ErlingmarkCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Häcken – IFK Göteborg

Predicted score matrix

IFK Göteborg →

Häcken →

0–05.2%

0–16.4%

0–24.6%

0–32.1%

0–4+1.0%

1–07.7%

1–111.4%

1–27.6%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.6%

2–19.1%

2–26.2%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.3%

3–03.6%

3–15.0%

3–23.4%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.7%

4+–02.2%

4+–13.0%

4+–22.0%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.1-28%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,65–1,37

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.68EV+12%

Over 2,558%

@1.48

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Häcken to win45%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Häcken to win45%
Over 2.5 goals58%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals58%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · IFK Göteborg30% probability@4.04BetsafeEV+22%reference odds
2 · IFK Göteborg30% probability@4.04NordicbetEV+22%reference odds
2 · IFK Göteborg30% probability@3.80LeoVegasEV+14%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Häcken	X	2 · IFK Göteborg
Betsafe	1.81	3.96	EV+ 22% 4.04
LeoVegas	1.80	EV+ 1% 4.10	EV+ 14% 3.80
Nordicbet	1.81	3.96	EV+ 22% 4.04

Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:37

Odds movement

10 %

55 %50 %

1.80 → 1.80

X0 %

25 %20 %

4.10 → 4.10

2-1 %

27 %22 %

3.85 → 3.80

LeoVegas · 5 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Häcken 4Draw 1IFK Göteborg 2

Goals: 16–12 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

BK Häcken dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 7 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 4.0 goals per meeting on average.
BK Häcken come into this round on 4 straight wins.
IFK Göteborg are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Häcken

IFK Göteborg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Häcken (47–30)

IFK Göteborg (34–43)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Häcken

IFK Göteborg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Häcken

IFK Göteborg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Häcken	IFK Göteborg
Points	45	36
xPoints	40.2	37.4
xG per match	1.6	1.6
xGA per match	1.1	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.2

Playing style	Häcken	IFK Göteborg
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.33
Field tilt	0.5	0.53
xT per match	1.6	1.4
xTA per match	1.2	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	28	33
Pressing intensity	0.56	0.53
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.26
Entries into the box per match	15	16
Entries into the box against	13	13
Pass completion %	0.83	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.79	0.74
Passes per match	446	379
Passes against per match	397	372
Switches of play per match	13.1	15.9
Long balls per match	32	31

Set pieces	Häcken	IFK Göteborg
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.17
Corners per match	5.4	6.8
Corners against per match	5.6	5.1
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.51	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.64

Other	Häcken	IFK Göteborg
Throw-in control	0.66	0.55

The goalkeepers	Andreas Linde (Häcken)	Elis Bishesari (IFK Göteborg)
Saves	45	38
Save %	74%	57%
xG prevented	52%	32%
Claims	54 (90%)	56 (85%)

Teams & more matches this round

Häcken

Fixtures, form & tips

IFK Göteborg

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Häcken spelschema IFK Göteborg spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Häcken vs IFK Göteborg according to our model?

The model gives Häcken a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Häcken 45%, draw 25%, IFK Göteborg 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Häcken vs IFK Göteborg?

The model expects 1.65 goals (xG) for Häcken and 1.37 for IFK Göteborg, 3.02 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Häcken or draw (1X) 70%, IFK Göteborg or draw (X2) 55% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.