Djurgården vs Degerfors Prediction: Home win 71% (1 Nov 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan1 November 2026 14:00 CET3Arena, Stockholm8°4,8 mm21 km/h

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DjurgårdenPossession & high press

DegerforsCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Djurgården (71%)Best value by the model: 2 · Degerfors @ 9.70 (+15 %)

1 · Djurgården 71%X 17%12% Degerfors · 2

71%

17%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Djurgården vs Degerfors (Swedish Allsvenskan, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Djurgården win 71%, draw 17%, Degerfors win 12%. Expected goals (xG): Djurgården 2.52, Degerfors 0.86. Most likely score: 2-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Djurgården or draw 88%, Degerfors or draw 29%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Djurgården – Degerfors

Erik Lindberg · 24 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

The odds figure (Bet365 1.40) is not supported by the provided facts.

A clash between a high-pressing home side and a counter-attacking visitor shapes the upcoming encounter. Djurgården's inclination to control possession will likely dictate the game's tempo against Degerfors, who prefer to exploit spaces with crosses and quick counters. These tactical nuances set the stage for a match where the hosts are heavily favored, with a 71% chance of victory.

Digging into the numbers, Djurgården's dominance is evident, both in form and expected goals. They've scored in their last nine league matches, averaging 1.8 expected goals compared to Degerfors' meager 0.88. This, combined with a superior xPoint tally of 41.7 against Degerfors’ 24.5, paints a picture of a one-sided fixture. Historically, Djurgården holds a favorable record in their recent meetings, but with a small sample size of just five games, this head-to-head form carries less weight than the current season stats.

The model points towards a one-sided affair, with a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a significant expected goal differential. Djurgården is predicted to create 2.52 expected goals to Degerfors' 0.86, with the most likely scorelines of 2-0 or 3-0. Despite the historical average of 3.4 goals per meeting, the visiting side's limited attacking prowess suggests they could struggle to contribute to the tally. However, with a 53% likelihood of both teams finding the net, Degerfors snatching a lone goal isn't out of the question.

The sharpest angle here lies in the home side's solid position across the model's outputs. With Djurgården the clear favorite at 71% to win, the value aligns with the model's lean. While this may not bring the thrill of chasing higher returns, it's well-founded plays like this that anchor a successful betting strategy.

Djurgården

Form WWLWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #5xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Piotr JohanssonRBxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
Hampus FinndellCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
Oskar FalleniusLWxG 0.34 · xT 0.12

Degerfors

Form LLDLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #12xT #12xP/match #15Points #14

Key players

Dijan VukojevicFxG 0.23 · xT 0.19
Nahom Girmai NetabayRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.30
CR Sebastian OhlssonCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Djurgården – Degerfors

Predicted score matrix

Degerfors →

Djurgården →

0–03.6%

0–12.7%

0–21.3%

0–30.4%

0–4+0.1%

1–08.4%

1–17.6%

1–23.2%

1–30.9%

1–4+0.2%

2–010.8%

2–19.3%

2–24.0%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–09.1%

3–17.8%

3–23.4%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.2%

4+–010.4%

4+–19.0%

4+–23.9%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.2-19%
3.3-09%
4.1-08%
5.3-18%

Expected goals

2,52–0,86

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

419%

5+25%

Under 2,534%

@2.52

Over 2,566%

@1.53EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Djurgården to win71%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 2 legs

Balanced

Djurgården to win71%
Over 2.5 goals66%

03 · 2 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals66%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Degerfors12% probability@9.70BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
2 · Degerfors12% probability@9.70NordicbetEV+15%reference odds
2 · Degerfors12% probability@9.00LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Djurgården	X	2 · Degerfors
Betsafe	1.31	5.42	EV+ 15% 9.70
LeoVegas	1.31	5.50	EV+ 7% 9.00
Nordicbet	1.31	5.42	EV+ 15% 9.70

Odds updated 27 Oct, 14:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

75 %70 %

1.30 → 1.31

X-2 %

20 %15 %

5.60 → 5.50

20 %

13 %8 %

9.00 → 9.00

LeoVegas · 7 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Djurgården 3Draw 1Degerfors 1

Goals: 12–5 (⌀ 3,4)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

Djurgården dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.4 goals per meeting on average.
Djurgården have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Djurgården

Degerfors

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Djurgården (50–21)

Degerfors (21–41)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Djurgården

Degerfors

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Djurgården

Degerfors

The teams in numbers

Performance	Djurgården	Degerfors
Points	47	20
xPoints	41.7	24.5
xG per match	1.8	0.88
xGA per match	1	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.36	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.13	0.33

Playing style	Djurgården	Degerfors
Build-up efficiency	0.37	0.35
Field tilt	0.55	0.44
xT per match	1.4	1.3
xTA per match	1.3	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	31	33
Pressing intensity	0.53	0.49
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.26
Entries into the box per match	15	11
Entries into the box against	13	15
Pass completion %	0.83	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.76
Passes per match	444	371
Passes against per match	362	421
Switches of play per match	16.1	14.2
Long balls per match	29	29

Set pieces	Djurgården	Degerfors
xG from free kicks	0.18	0.12
Corners per match	5.9	5
Corners against per match	3.8	5.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.25
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.65

Other	Djurgården	Degerfors
Throw-in control	0.64	0.56

The goalkeepers	Jacob Rinne (Djurgården)	Matvei Igonen (Degerfors)
Saves	74	100
Save %	80%	71%
xG prevented	56%	45%
Claims	104 (90%)	117 (91%)

Teams & more matches this round

Djurgården

Fixtures, form & tips

Degerfors

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Djurgården spelschema Degerfors spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Djurgården vs Degerfors according to our model?

The model gives Djurgården a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Djurgården 71%, draw 17%, Degerfors 12%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Djurgården vs Degerfors?

The model expects 2.52 goals (xG) for Djurgården and 0.86 for Degerfors, 3.38 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Djurgården or draw (1X) 88%, Degerfors or draw (X2) 29% and no draw (12) 83%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.