01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Hammarby to win46%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Swedish AllsvenskanEleda Stadion, Malmö11°30 km/h
Läs på svenska
Malmö FFPossession & high pressvs
HammarbyPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Hammarby (46%)Best value by the model: 1 · Malmö FF @ 4.04 (+23 %)
Malmö FF vs Hammarby · Swedish Allsvenskan
1 · Malmö FF 30%X 23%46% Hammarby · 2
30%
23%
46%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Malmö FF vs Hammarby (Swedish Allsvenskan, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Malmö FF win 30%, draw 23%, Hammarby win 46%. Expected goals (xG): Malmö FF 1.38, Hammarby 1.67. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Malmö FF or draw 54%, Hammarby or draw 70%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.
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Analysis: Malmö FF – Hammarby
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
With Malmö FF and Hammarby set to clash, all signs point to a compelling battle where the visitors have the upper hand. Hammarby, riding high with 46 points versus Malmö's 37, also boast superior underlying metrics—a notable 2.1 expected goals (xG) per match against Malmö's 1.5. Their defensive solidity, allowing just 0.91 expected goals against (xGA) per match, further underscores their strength compared to Malmö's 1.2 xGA.
The model gives Hammarby a clear edge with a 46% probability of winning, suggesting value lies with the visitors.
Despite Malmö's respectable home win rate of 62% across 58 matches, this head-to-head record since 2023 is evenly split at 3 wins apiece and a draw across seven meetings. With this sample size, the head-to-head doesn't overshadow the form and expected goals metrics, which favor Hammarby.
The tactical match-up is intriguing, as both sides play a possession-based, high-press game. However, Hammarby's efficiency in converting chances sets them apart. The expected goals figures (1.67 for Hammarby compared to Malmö's 1.38) suggest they are more likely to capitalize on opportunities, hinting at a slight edge in this shared playing style.
Expect a match that hovers around the 2.5 goal mark, with a 59% chance of going over according to the model. The most likely scorelines reflect a narrow victory or a draw, with 1-1 at 11% and 1-2 at 9%. The 1-2 outcome feels like the sweet spot, where Hammarby's form and finishing prowess could just nudge them ahead.
Malmö FFForm WLWLD
League ranking xG #7xGA #8xT #10xP/match #10Points #7
Key players
- Adrian SkogmarCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.04
- Otto RosengrenCDMxG 0.14 · xT 0.13
- Gabriel Dal Toe BusanelloLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.39
HammarbyForm DWWLW
League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #2Points #3
Key players
- Nahir BesaraCAMxG 0.38 · xT 0.34
- Tesfaldet TekieCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.20
- Montader MadjedRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.28
Match prediction: Malmö FF – Hammarby
Predicted score matrix
Hammarby →
Malmö FF →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.1%
0–17.6%
0–26.6%
0–33.7%
0–4+2.3%
1
1–06.2%
1–111.2%
1–29.1%
1–35.1%
1–4+3.1%
2
2–04.5%
2–17.5%
2–26.3%
2–33.5%
2–4+2.1%
3
3–02.1%
3–13.4%
3–22.9%
3–31.6%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.6%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.0-27%
Expected goals
1,38–1,67
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@2.48EV+2%
Over 2,559%
@1.52
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Hammarby to win46%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Montader Madjed to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Montader Madjed to score24%
- Adrian Skogmar to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Malmö FF30% probability@4.04BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
- 1 · Malmö FF30% probability@4.04NordicbetEV+23%reference odds
- 1 · Malmö FF30% probability@4.00LeoVegasEV+22%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Malmö FF | X | 2 · Hammarby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 23% 4.04 | 3.96 | 1.81 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 22% 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 23% 4.04 | 3.96 | 1.81 |
Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:37
Odds movement
10 %
26 %21 %
4.00 → 4.00
X0 %
26 %21 %
4.00 → 4.00
20 %
55 %50 %
1.80 → 1.80
LeoVegas · 6 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
7 matchesMalmö FF 3Draw 1Hammarby 3
Goals: 13–14 (⌀ 3,9)
Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.
Key facts
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.9 goals per meeting on average.
- Malmö FF win 62% of their home matches all-time (58 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Malmö FF
Hammarby
Malmö FF (38–34)
Hammarby (50–21)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Malmö FF
Hammarby
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Malmö FF
Hammarby
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Malmö FF | Hammarby |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 37 | 46 |
| xPoints | 33.2 | 43.2 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 0.91 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.4 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Malmö FF | Hammarby |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.61 | 0.77 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 0.87 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 37 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 18 | 20 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.84 | 0.87 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.8 | 0.83 |
| Passes per match | 466 | 564 |
| Passes against per match | 336 | 313 |
| Switches of play per match | 13.9 | 11 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 24 |
| Set pieces | Malmö FF | Hammarby |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Corners per match | 5.1 | 6.7 |
| Corners against per match | 5.3 | 2.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| Other | Malmö FF | Hammarby |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Robin Olsen (Malmö FF) | Warner Hahn (Hammarby) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 54 | 46 |
| Save % | 77% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 60% | 39% |
| Claims | 78 (92%) | 86 (98%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Malmö FF spelschemaHammarby spelschema
- Hammarby – Sirius29 October 2026 18:30 CET
- Örgryte – Mjällby29 October 2026 19:00 CET
- Kalmar FF – GAIS29 October 2026 19:00 CET
- Djurgården – Degerfors1 November 2026 14:00 CET
- Häcken – IFK Göteborg1 November 2026 16:30 CET
- Elfsborg – Örgryte1 November 2026 16:30 CET
- Västerås SK – Brommapojkarna1 November 2026 16:30 CET
- GAIS – AIK2 November 2026 19:00 CET
- Mjällby – Kalmar FF2 November 2026 19:00 CET
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Malmö FF vs Hammarby according to our model?
The model gives Hammarby a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Malmö FF 30%, draw 23%, Hammarby 46%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Malmö FF vs Hammarby?
The model expects 1.38 goals (xG) for Malmö FF and 1.67 for Hammarby, 3.05 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Malmö FF or draw (1X) 54%, Hammarby or draw (X2) 70% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Get the bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.