Elfsborg vs Örgryte Prediction: Home win 62% (1 Nov 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan1 November 2026 16:30 CETBorås arena, Borås8°2,1 mm19 km/h

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ElfsborgBalanced & physical

ÖrgryteBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Elfsborg (62%)Best value by the model: 2 · Örgryte @ 8.21 (+35 %)

1 · Elfsborg 62%X 22%16% Örgryte · 2

62%

22%

16%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Elfsborg vs Örgryte (Swedish Allsvenskan, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Elfsborg win 62%, draw 22%, Örgryte win 16%. Expected goals (xG): Elfsborg 2.24, Örgryte 1.03. Most likely score: 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Elfsborg or draw 84%, Örgryte or draw 38%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Elfsborg – Örgryte

Erik Lindberg · 24 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Elfsborg's home fortress, where they claim victory in 57% of their matches, sets the stage for this Allsvenskan clash against Örgryte. Despite a small head-to-head sample size since 2023 showing a draw, the hosts' current league form and underlying stats suggest they're poised to extend their unbeaten streak to six games. With 42 points to the visitors' 18, the gap is evident. Elfsborg's expected goals (xG) of 2.24 against Örgryte's 1.03 further underscores their edge.

The match is likely to be a physical affair, given both teams' styles, but Elfsborg's balanced approach should see them dominate proceedings. The expected goals against (xGA) for Örgryte stands at a concerning 2.0 per match, suggesting they'll struggle to contain the hosts' attacks. Most models highlight a 2-0 or 2-1 outcome as the most probable scorelines. While a 1-1 draw isn't off the table, it's less convincing given the current form and stats.

Goals are expected, with a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals. However, a slight majority of 58% also backs both teams to score, hinting at some attacking moments for the visitors. Yet, Elfsborg's defensive solidity should limit them to one goal at best. The numbers align with a lean towards over 2.5 goals, but the hosts' defensive edge might just keep it tighter than the raw percentage suggests.

With Elfsborg's superior form, home advantage, and statistical backing, the model's lean clearly favors them to win. While nothing is guaranteed in football, this outlook aligns with the clear probabilities and patterns on display.

Elfsborg

Form WWWDD

League ranking xG #9xGA #6xT #7xP/match #7Points #5

Key players

Niklas HultLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
Sebastian HolménCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.08
Simon OlssonCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.19

Örgryte

Form DLLLW

League ranking xG #14xGA #15xT #14xP/match #13Points #15

Key players

Daniel PaulsonRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.14
Noah ChristofferssonFxG 0.38 · xT 0.03
Tobias SanaCAMxG 0.15 · xT 0.25

Match prediction: Elfsborg – Örgryte

Predicted score matrix

Örgryte →

Elfsborg →

0–04.1%

0–13.7%

0–22.0%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–08.3%

1–19.1%

1–24.5%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.6%

2–19.8%

2–25.0%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–07.1%

3–17.3%

3–23.8%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.4%

4+–06.7%

4+–16.9%

4+–23.5%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.2-010%
3.1-19%
4.1-08%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,24–1,03

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

221%

322%

418%

5+23%

Under 2,537%

@2.38

Over 2,563%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Elfsborg to win62%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Elfsborg to win62%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Simon Olsson to score41%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals63%
Simon Olsson to score41%
Charlie Vindehall to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Örgryte16% probability@8.21BetsafeEV+35%reference odds
2 · Örgryte16% probability@8.21NordicbetEV+35%reference odds
2 · Örgryte16% probability@7.00LeoVegasEV+15%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Elfsborg	X	2 · Örgryte
Betsafe	1.37	EV+ 7% 4.96	EV+ 35% 8.21
LeoVegas	1.38	EV+ 8% 5.00	EV+ 15% 7.00
Nordicbet	1.37	EV+ 7% 4.96	EV+ 35% 8.21

Odds updated 27 Oct, 13:37

Odds movement

10 %

70 %65 %

1.38 → 1.38

X+2 %

21 %16 %

4.90 → 5.00

2-7 %

16 %11 %

7.50 → 7.00

LeoVegas · 5 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 27/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Elfsborg 0Draw 1Örgryte 0

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

IF Elfsborg are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
IF Elfsborg win 57% of their home matches all-time (58 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Elfsborg

Örgryte

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Elfsborg (37–24)

Örgryte (29–54)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Elfsborg

Örgryte

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Elfsborg

Örgryte

The teams in numbers

Performance	Elfsborg	Örgryte
Points	42	18
xPoints	35.8	25.9
xG per match	1.3	1
xGA per match	1.2	2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.3

Playing style	Elfsborg	Örgryte
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.36
Field tilt	0.48	0.33
xT per match	1.4	1.1
xTA per match	1.3	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	26	25
Pressing intensity	0.47	0.51
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.2
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.22
Entries into the box per match	15	12
Entries into the box against	13	17
Pass completion %	0.83	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.74
Passes per match	414	337
Passes against per match	440	494
Switches of play per match	13.6	14.9
Long balls per match	28	26

Set pieces	Elfsborg	Örgryte
xG from free kicks	0.15	0.12
Corners per match	4.7	3.8
Corners against per match	5	6.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.57

Other	Elfsborg	Örgryte
Throw-in control	0.64	0.58

The goalkeepers	Isak Pettersson (Elfsborg)	Hampus Gustafsson (Örgryte)
Saves	75	100
Save %	76%	65%
xG prevented	54%	38%
Claims	102 (86%)	137 (90%)

Teams & more matches this round

Elfsborg

Fixtures, form & tips

Örgryte

Fixtures, form & tips

Hela spelschemat med svårighetsgrad per match: Elfsborg spelschema Örgryte spelschema

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Elfsborg vs Örgryte according to our model?

The model gives Elfsborg a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Elfsborg 62%, draw 22%, Örgryte 16%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Elfsborg vs Örgryte?

The model expects 2.24 goals (xG) for Elfsborg and 1.03 for Örgryte, 3.26 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Elfsborg or draw (1X) 84%, Örgryte or draw (X2) 38% and no draw (12) 78%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.